MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$608.70-0.87%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track MSCI free→NYSEFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Track MSCI free→MSCI grows revenue about 11% a year with strong profit margins near 18-20%. Free cash flow is solid, guided at $1.5 billion for 2026. The company expands data offerings, boosting cash flow potential. Regulatory delays have eased some near-term risks.
Regulatory risks in key markets like Indonesia and Turkey could hurt MSCI's market position and revenue. Effective tax rate volatility may pressure earnings. The stock trades expensive with a PE of 34, above peers at 16.5.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $594, reflecting roughly 11% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 15% below the Street median, so the market prices in strong growth but with some valuation premium.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.4 billion in FY26
Focus on increasing free cash flow through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow for first quarter 2026 was up 3.4% year-over-year to $278.0 million. MSCI's guidance for 2026 includes Free Cash Flow of $1,470 to $1,530 million, indicating a focus on increasing free cash flow. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the annual target.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Free cash flow for first quarter 2026 was up 3.4% year-over-year to $278.0 million.”
“Free Cash Flow $1,470 to $1,530 million.”
“Free Cash Flow $1,410 to $1,470 million.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 16% in FY26
Breaks if: MSCI downgrades or reclassifies major markets reducing revenue materially
Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the guided range for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Effective tax rate decreased to (4.3)% in first quarter 2026, significantly below the guided range of 18.0% to 20.0%. This reflects the impact of a discrete tax benefit, indicating a deviation from the expected trajectory.
“Effective tax rate decreased to (4.3)% in first quarter 2026.”
“Effective Tax Rate 18.0% to 20.0%.”
“Effective Tax Rate (2) 18.0% to 20.0%.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26