Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$468.05-0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Motorola Solutions aims for $12.8 billion revenue in 2026. Software and Services sales grew 18% in Q1 2026. The company pays dividends and buys back stock regularly. Earnings per share guidance was recently raised.
Revenue growth could slow below 7% next year. Software segment growth may weaken. Capital allocation might become less disciplined.
The price is about 53% above our fair value near $278. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth. We see the valuation as too high versus fundamentals.
Breaks if: Capital returned falls below $200 million per quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $15 per share in FY26
Revenue falls below $11.65 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and expanding software services. The current thesis is stable, as recent financial performance has been solid within its industry.
The market currently prices MSI as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that some growth is already anticipated. However, the overall valuation confidence is low, suggesting that there may be some uncertainty about future performance.
Management is on track to meet its revenue goals and expand its software segment, which could support continued growth. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises, which warrants attention.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of key sector players like CSCO, LITE, and NOK. Additionally, any negative guidance from management could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth. MSI raised its revenue outlook to about $12.975 billion for 2026. This positive news reinforces confidence in the company's growth potential. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management aims to achieve $12.8 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: Software sales growth falls below 15% YoY
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MSI's performance will depend on management's execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.