Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$496.99+1.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.18 → 19.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with dividends and buybacks | A supporting condition in Motorola Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >= $300 million combined dividends and buybacks per quarter. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $200 million per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MSI is a large technology company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has eased from favorable to mildly favorable, and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MSI is marked as cheap versus peers, yet also carries a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations-gap measure is 0.29, while the priced-in assessment calls the valuation unjustified; expensive valuation is the main source of fragility, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near-term, management’s revenue goal and Software and Services expansion are on track, with that segment’s sales and backlog growing. The company has also continued repurchases and dividends, while a recent earnings beat supports the business setup; however, earnings surprises have been trending down, and the recent record includes a deep miss. The next guidance update is a key near-term risk, while broader technology-sector pressure remains a headwind.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining revenue growth and expanding Software and Services. Near-term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from technology peers could improve the sector backdrop. The evidence does not make these scenarios certain.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MSI’s execution gives the thesis support, but expensive valuation signals and weakening earnings-surprise trends leave meaningful questions. The central test is whether growth priorities stay on track without a guidance cut. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Full-year 2026 - The company now expects revenue of approximately $13.050 billion, up from its prior guidance of $12.975 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $17.94 and $17.99 per share, up from its prior guidance of between $17.62 and $17.72 per share.” “In addition, the company is increasing its operating cash flow expectations to $3.050 billion for the full year.”
EPS meets or exceeds $16.9 in 2026 | Earnings per share guidance was recently raised. | Intact | EPS falls below $15 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.06 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.9 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20263.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $12.8 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Motorola Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.8 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $11.65 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $3.376B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.8 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20263,376,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Software and Services sales grow at least 15% annually | Software and Services sales grew 18% in Q1 2026. | Intact | Software sales growth falls below 15% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.54 → $19.18 · observed estimates
$13.63B → $13.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.54 | $13,635,847,500 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.54 | $13,635,847,500 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.54 | $13,635,847,500 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.54 | $13,635,847,500 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.54 | $13,635,847,500 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.54 | $13,630,022,246 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.89 | $13,802,462,120 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.92 | $13,796,433,577 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.12 | $13,854,456,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.12 | $13,854,475,357 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.12 | $13,854,475,357 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.12 | $13,854,475,357 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.14 | $13,827,194,196 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.17 | $13,827,194,196 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.18 | $13,815,650,510 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.