Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$517.01+4.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 50.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-17
Other Events. On August 17, 2026, Motorola Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) closed the underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of $350,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 4.850% senior notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), and $600,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 5.650% senior notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”) pursuant to the Underwriting Agreement, dated August 6, 2026, by and among the Company and the several underwriters named…
Why it matters: This segment grew 10% in Q2 and backlog rose 11%. Slower sales growth would weaken a key growth area.
Worry ifSoftware and Services sales grow less than 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifSoftware and Services sales grow at least 10% year over year.
Why it matters: MSI set a Q4 close window for the roughly $500 million deal. A delay would push back its planned addition to the business.
Watch forMSI announces that the Bell Canada LMR services deal closed by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forMSI reports that the deal did not close by December 31, 2026, or that the deal ended.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. A cut to MSI's sales outlook would add to that concern.
Worry ifMSI cuts its next-quarter revenue growth outlook below 8%.
Less concerning ifMSI keeps or raises its next-quarter revenue growth outlook at or above 8%.
Why it matters: Backlog reached a record $15.6 billion, up 11%. Slower growth could point to weaker future demand.
Worry ifYear-over-year backlog growth falls below 11% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth stays at or above 11% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $173 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,080 loss on $10,000 · 20.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: MSI agreed to pay $1.5 billion for D-Fend's counter-drone technology. Closing and early progress will test this large deal.
Watch forMSI announces the D-Fend deal closed. It also reports a customer win or product launch using its technology.
Also watch forMSI reports that the deal ended, closing was delayed, or integration caused a stated cost or launch delay.
Why it matters: MSI guided to about 8% sales growth for Q3. A miss would break its recent growth pace.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth is below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth is 8% or higher year over year.