Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$468.05-0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
MSI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-17
Other Events. On August 17, 2026, Motorola Solutions, Inc. (the “Company”) closed the underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of $350,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 4.850% senior notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), and $600,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of 5.650% senior notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes” and, together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”) pursuant to the Underwriting Agreement, dated August 6, 2026, by and among the Company and the several underwriters named…
Why it matters: Completing this deal would make Motorola's services better. It would also boost their market strength.
Supportive ifThe Bell Canada acquisition will be announced as complete by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition could be delayed past Q4 2026 or canceled.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better financial health and helps with spending plans.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is above $500 million in future quarters.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is below $400 million in future quarters.
Why it matters: Rising material costs could hurt profits. This may affect the company's financial health.
Worry ifManagement says material costs are rising. This leads to lower operating margins.
Less concerning ifOperating margins stay stable or improve. This happens even with rising material costs.
Why it matters: This purchase could make Motorola's counter-drone technology better. It may help them grow.
Supportive ifThe D-Fend acquisition is complete. There are good updates on how it is going.
Worry ifThere are delays or bad news about the D-Fend acquisition.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,545 loss on $10,000 · 25.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong sales potential. Hitting this target would help revenue grow.
Supportive ifQ1 backlog growth is confirmed at 11% or more compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ1 backlog growth is reported below 11% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and good operations ahead.
Supportive ifBacklog reported above $15.7 billion in the next earnings report.
Worry ifBacklog reported below $15.7 billion in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this area is important for overall revenue and strategy.
Supportive ifSoftware and Services segment growth exceeds 18% year over year.
Worry ifSoftware and Services segment growth falls below 18% year over year.
Why it matters: Better use of capital can increase value for shareholders. It can also help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the capital use score is over 70%.
Worry ifManagement says the capital use score is under 70%.
Why it matters: How Motorola handles its debt and capital may affect future growth and returns.
Watch forManagement talks about how they will use money after the recent debt.
Also watch forThere is no clear plan or bad news on capital use after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Stable costs show good management of supply chain issues. Rising costs could hurt profits.
Watch forSupply chain costs stabilize or decrease in the next quarter.
Also watch forSupply chain costs continue to rise significantly in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This will show if the company's growth momentum is slowing. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported at less than 8% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at 8% or higher compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could indicate weakening future demand. Backlog is a key indicator of future sales.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported at less than 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifBacklog grew by 10% or more compared to last year.
Why it matters: Increased supply chain costs could hurt margins and overall profitability. This is a key risk factor for the company.
Worry ifManagement says supply chain costs are much higher because memory costs are rising.
Less concerning ifManagement says supply chain costs are stable or going down.