Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-08
$424.34+0.36%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $424.34. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $424 MSI trades at 31× p/e, below its 72× p/e peer median, but our blended $277 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $327, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $478.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $478.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $68.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $68.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 95% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $13.01/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $1210.70 |
| 71.5 |
| 16.93 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $281.32 | 18.5 | 17.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $367.67 | 24.8 | 14.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $979.00 | 71.5 | 13.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $257.08 | 3.6 | 70.64 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $151.46 | 11.1 | 13.69 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $61.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $396.49 | 29.0 | 13.69 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $1040.09 | 71.5 | 14.54 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $2231.65 | 71.5 | 31.21 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $559.18 | 24.8 | 22.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1492.74 | 71.5 | 20.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $332.44 | 3.6 | 91.35 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $230.94 | 11.1 | 20.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $604.56 | 29.0 | 20.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $3354.95 | 71.5 | 46.91 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $739.51 | 24.8 | 29.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1736.40 | 71.5 | 24.28 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $386.71 | 3.6 | 106.26 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $268.64 | 11.1 | 24.28 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $703.24 | 29.0 | 24.28 | Analyst | high |