Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$158.54-1.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.43 → 6.54 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $106 million annualized cost efficiencies | A primary condition in Vail Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >= $106 million annualized savings. | Intact | Cost efficiencies fall short of $106 million annualized by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical resort and leisure business with an execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a steady compounder. The thesis has shifted from mixed to cautious, and its current state is watch.
The evidence labels MTN cheap, but its valuation is at a 1.59 premium to peers, so those signals conflict. The expectations gap is slightly negative at -0.03, while priced-in fragility is low and the valuation tag is justified. The evidence points to possible re-rating as the valuation driver, but does not clearly show what the market assumes about future results.
Near term, results may remain uneven: fiscal 2026 Resort Reported EBITDA and net revenue declined year over year, and the latest pass update showed fewer units and lower sales dollars. Management delivered cost savings, but those did not prevent the EBITDA decline; further efficiencies are expected in fiscal 2027. Miss risk is described as low, though recent misses and performance below the industry cohort remain concerns.
A favorable shift would require guidance to recover after it was lowered, alongside evidence that cost savings can support results as visitation improves. Sector bellwethers could add support if they keep beating and raising guidance, or weaken the backdrop if they miss or guide lower.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis hinges on whether efficiency gains and stronger visitation can reverse the recent declines. Current evidence is mixed, with the thesis in watch state and medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects to deliver approximately $25 million of incremental efficiencies in fiscal year 2027, excluding one-time costs, resulting in approximately $110 million of annualized cost efficiencies by the end of fiscal year 2027.” “The updated fiscal year 2027 outlook reflects the accelerated realization of $5 million from the next phase of its resource efficiency transformation plan due to certain technology transformation initiatives that were previously expected to benefit fiscal 2028, with an additional $25 million of savings in fiscal year 2028 that includes a portion of capital savings.”
Maintain stable profit margins near recent levels | Profit margins and cash flow remain solid despite recent challenges. | Under Pressure | Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels over next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $735 million next quarter | Revenue is expected near $735 million next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $735 million next quarter | Revenue: $278.11M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $735 million. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 28, 2026278,110,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.22 → $6.54 · observed estimates
$3.10B → $3.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.22 | $3,095,198,086 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.15 | $3,085,343,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.13 | $3,085,418,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.13 | $3,085,418,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.13 | $3,085,418,450 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.03 | $3,086,207,999 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.03 | $3,086,207,999 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.03 | $3,086,207,999 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.92 | $3,084,652,443 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.92 | $3,084,652,443 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.92 | $3,084,485,776 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.92 | $3,084,485,776 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.92 | $3,084,485,776 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.92 | $3,084,485,776 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.54 | $3,138,013,484 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.54 | $3,138,013,484 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.43 | $3,132,150,320 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.43 | $3,132,150,320 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.43 | $3,132,150,320 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.43 | $3,132,150,320 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.43 | $3,132,150,320 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.52 | $3,141,065,268 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.53 | $3,149,450,244 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.53 | $3,149,450,244 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.54 | $3,149,996,057 | 10 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.