Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$161.08+5.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put MTN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskVail Resorts' lift ticket sales must rebound to justify the premium. Revenue fell 7% in the prior quarter. The latest quarter beat estimates. The stock trades at 39x earnings. Peers trade at 25x earnings. The price reflects less growth than we forecast. Management is running behind on a stated commitment. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. MTN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering MTN (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MTN in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MTN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MTN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Reduced activist pressure signals potential de-escalation of governance conflict.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $161.08
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $161.08.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Disciplined Capital Allocation and Liquidity Management
Dividend risk impacts liquidity management and capital allocation.
Threatens: Disciplined Capital Allocation and Liquidity Management
Dividend risk impacts liquidity management and capital allocation.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Plummeting Epic Pass sales threaten guest visitation growth.
Advances: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Projected EBITDA supports growth in lift ticket sales.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Decline in skier attendance impacts ticket sales growth objective.
Advances: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Ancillary spending supports guest visitation and ticket sales growth.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Profit plunge impacts growth objective of ticket sales.
