Reading MTN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTN free→Reading MTN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If MTN reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that's a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $133.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $133 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $122 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $119–$200. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-5.07 → $-5.21 (-2.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$340.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,638.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential change in the growth phase of the sector. This could affect Vail Resorts' performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Concerns about demand impairing guest visitation.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 8, 2026 , Vail Resorts, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the three and nine months ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$119.00 – $200.00 (median $173.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTN Vail Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABNB Airbnb | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve $106 million of annualized cost efficiencies, $6 million above the original plan.
Focus on increasing guest visitation to drive growth in revenue and free cash flow.
Invest in lifts, snowmaking, terrain, and talent to elevate the guest experience.
Why it matters: Changes in the Consumer Price Index can change how people spend money. This affects Vail Resorts.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a big increase. This means inflation is going up.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a significant decrease or remains unchanged.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean less consumer spending. This could affect Vail Resorts.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends can impact Vail Resorts' revenue and growth outlook.
Confirms one read:Consumer Price Index shows a rise in consumer spending above 0.3% month over month.
Confirms the other:Consumer Price Index shows a decline in consumer spending below 0.1% month over month.