Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$158.54-1.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
MTN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 16, 2026, Vail Holdings, Inc. (“VHI”), a Colorado corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Vail Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”), certain subsidiaries of the Company and the Company, as guarantors, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto constituting the Required Lenders entered into the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”) to the Tenth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of February 9…
Why it matters: Vail forecasts $805 million to $865 million in fiscal 2027 Resort EBITDA. A weak start would put that range at risk.
Worry ifOn December 9, Vail lowers its fiscal 2027 Resort EBITDA range below $805 million. Or, it reports results that make the range hard to reach.
Less concerning ifVail keeps the $805 million to $865 million range and reports results on pace to meet it.
Why it matters: Pass units fell 12%, while sales dollars fell 6%. More sales could ease pressure on visits and revenue.
Watch forVail reports that North American pass units have improved from 12% below last year by the next sales update.
Also watch forThe next update still shows pass units down 12% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Vail says pricing and product changes may keep lift revenue flat. Growth would show those plans are bringing in more revenue.
Supportive ifVail reports fiscal 2027 lift revenue above the prior year, with higher lift ticket visits or prices.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 lift revenue falls below the prior year, or Vail reports lower visits without enough price gains to offset them.
Why it matters: The board plans to add a director after Sue Decker leaves. A completed appointment would meet that stated plan.
Supportive ifVail names a new independent director and raises the board size to ten by early 2027.
Worry ifVail has not named a director or raised the board size to ten by the end of early 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $348 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,392 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Vail counts on about $25 million in added savings to help cover higher costs. Missing that amount could pressure earnings.
Worry ifVail reports less than $25 million in added fiscal 2027 savings from its resource plan.
Less concerning ifVail reports at least $25 million in added fiscal 2027 savings from its resource plan.