Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$134.96-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
MTN — officer change
Dated 2026-09-02
Director — Sue Decker: The filing discloses a director's decision not to stand for reelection at the end of her term, which is a routine board succession event rather than a sudden executive departure.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential change in the growth phase of the sector. This could affect Vail Resorts' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: More pass sales would show that more guests are visiting after a hard winter.
Supportive ifPass product unit sales increase year over year by more than 5% in Q4.
Worry ifPass product unit sales continue to decline year over year by more than 10% in Q4.
Why it matters: Normal weather may bring more visitors and help revenue recover.
Supportive ifWeather reports show normal snowfall in the Rockies for the next season.
Worry ifWeather reports show bad conditions continue in the Rockies.
Why it matters: High guest satisfaction can drive repeat visits and revenue. A drop could signal issues.
Watch forGuest satisfaction scores are better than last year.
Also watch forGuest satisfaction scores are worse than last year.
Why it matters: Weather affects visits and revenue. Bad weather can cause more revenue drops.
Worry ifWeather is normal, leading to steady or more visitors.
Less concerning ifBad weather continues, causing more drops in visits and revenue.
Why it matters: Pass sales are key for future revenue. A strong performance could signal recovery.
Supportive ifPass sales units for the 2026/2027 season increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifPass sales units decrease year over year by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Weather affects guest numbers and revenue. Bad weather can keep results down.
Worry ifReports show normal weather leads to more visitors and higher revenue.
Less concerning ifBad weather continues to cause drops in visitors and revenue.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is crucial for cost savings and overall profitability. It can help offset the impact of poor weather.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached or passed the $106 million in yearly cost savings.
Worry ifUpdates show that cost savings are below the $106 million target.
Why it matters: A recovery in skier visits would signal improved demand after a tough winter. This could support revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ4 skier visits increase year over year, reversing the 14.9% decline reported for Q3.
Worry ifQ4 skier visits continue to decline or remain flat compared to last year.
Why it matters: The results will show if the company can recover from recent drops in pass sales. Strong sales would mean better demand and market position.
Supportive ifSeason pass sales for the upcoming ski season increase year over year by at least 5%.
Worry ifSeason pass sales continue to decline year over year by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating the EBITDA guidance would show good cost management. This is important in tough times.
Supportive ifResort reported EBITDA for Q4 is between $735 million and $755 million.
Worry ifIf Resort's EBITDA is under $735 million, it shows more problems with operations.
Why it matters: Adding a new independent director could improve governance and strategy. This may help future growth.
Supportive ifA new independent director will join the board by early 2027.
Worry ifIf no new director is announced on time, it may show governance problems.
Why it matters: Changes in skier visits will show how well marketing works and how weather affects demand.
Watch forSkier visitation increases by at least 5% compared to the previous year.
Also watch forSkier visitation declines further by more than 10% compared to the previous year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,392 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.