Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$96.88-1.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Nasdaq grows revenue steadily, reaching over $2.13 billion by Q1 2026. Profit margins remain strong near 22.5% or higher. The company returns capital well, with $701 million in dividends and buybacks in Q1 2026. Nasdaq benefits from new listings and market position expansion.
Revenue could decline sharply, with analysts expecting about 17% lower sales next year. Profit margins might compress below 22.5%. Capital returns could slow if cash flow weakens. Competition or market shifts may hurt Nasdaq's growth and listing appeal.
The market price is about 42% above our valuation level and expects a 17% revenue decline next year. Our view sees Nasdaq sustaining growth and margin targets, which contrasts with the negative revenue outlook priced in.
Breaks if: Capital returned falls below $500 million in any quarter after Q1 2026
Breaks if: Significant loss of key listings or market share declines materially
Profit margin falls below 22.5% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in Financial Technology and Solutions. The current thesis state is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and consistent capital returns to shareholders.
The market appears to price NDAQ at a premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for its performance. However, this premium may not be fully justified given the current fundamentals and sector dynamics.
Management is on track with its growth initiatives, as evidenced by recent revenue increases in Financial Technology. While there is a low probability of missing earnings, recent trends show a downward trajectory in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE, which could influence NDAQ's momentum. Guidance changes in upcoming calls will also be critical in shaping market expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. Nasdaq's recent acquisitions also advance market modernization and innovation initiatives. These factors improve the company's outlook. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.03 billion in any quarter after Q1 2026
Overall, NDAQ's fundamentals are solid, but its future performance is closely tied to sector trends and management's guidance. Not investment advice.