Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.70+2.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.68 → 4.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NDAQ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return at least $700 million to shareholders in Q1 2026 | The company returns capital well, with $701 million in dividends and buybacks in Q1 2026. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $500 million in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented financial technology and market-services business, with a long-term thesis based on continued growth across its platform. The thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, but management execution has been volatile and recent financial performance is neutral overall.
NDAQ is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium reflected in its valuation. The expectations gap is positive but modest, and confidence in that estimate is low. Valuation alone is flagged as a source of fragility, rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, the latest quarter showed net revenue up 13% year over year, Solutions revenue up 17%, and organic FinTech annual recurring revenue growth of 18%, supporting management’s broad-based growth priority. Market Services growth was more limited at 2%, while planned 23/5 trading in December is an execution milestone. The next guidance update remains a risk, despite a recent earnings beat and a low estimated miss risk.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued growth through the One Nasdaq platform and delivery on market modernization. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers such as SPGI, CME, and ICE could support sector momentum. The rate backdrop is another swing factor, since the evidence indicates that rate cuts could weigh on financial-sector names.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with improving company momentum and evidence of platform growth, but the premium valuation makes sustained execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Nasdaq benefits from new listings and market position expansion. |
| Intact |
| Significant loss of key listings or market share declines materially |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margin stays near or above 22.5% through 2026 | Profit margins remain strong near 22.5% or higher. | Intact | Profit margin falls below 22.5% in FY26 | Net margin: 22.57% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 22.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202622.565817 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $2.137 billion by Q1 2026 | Nasdaq grows revenue steadily, reaching over $2.13 billion by Q1 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.03 billion in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Revenue: $2.393B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.137 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 20262,393,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.61 → $4.74 · observed estimates
$6.41B → $6.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.61 | $6,409,589,256 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.61 | $6,409,589,256 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.65 | $6,416,726,466 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.65 | $6,394,926,140 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.65 | $6,416,726,466 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.65 | $6,396,095,990 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.65 | $6,396,095,990 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.65 | $6,396,095,990 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.65 | $6,396,095,990 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.65 | $6,396,111,370 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.67 | $6,396,111,370 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.67 | $6,396,111,370 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.67 | $6,394,942,810 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.67 | $6,394,942,810 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.65 | $6,418,961,142 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.67 | $6,420,470,654 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.68 | $6,422,382,170 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.68 | $6,428,910,752 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.68 | $6,433,000,426 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.68 | $6,433,000,426 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.68 | $6,433,000,426 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.68 | $6,433,000,426 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.68 | $6,433,000,426 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.67 | $6,431,023,857 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.68 | $6,427,085,464 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.68 | $6,427,085,464 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.68 | $6,426,278,490 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.68 | $6,426,278,490 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.68 | $6,431,050,536 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.68 | $6,428,522,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.68 | $6,428,322,203 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.68 | $6,428,655,536 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.68 | $6,428,655,536 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.73 | $6,474,102,639 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.73 | $6,477,890,759 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.73 | $6,477,890,759 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.73 | $6,477,890,759 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.73 | $6,477,890,759 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.74 | $6,483,671,246 | 10 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.