Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$86.43+2.32%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading NDAQ? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track NDAQ free→NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading NDAQ? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track NDAQ free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
This investment is in a financial services company with a focus on growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is intact, but it faces challenges from market conditions and execution quality.
The market appears to price in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations for performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, suggesting that the current price may not fully justify the risks involved.
Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, as management is on track with its growth strategy and capital return initiatives. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given recent industry trends.
The outlook hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute its strategy effectively. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as interest rate changes and sector performance, will play a crucial role in shaping future results.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NDAQ's performance will depend on its execution and external market factors. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the view that NDAQ's fundamentals are holding up well, and the company's "Expand, Evolve, and Transform" strategy is reinforcing its market position and growth potential. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this outlook.
as of 2026-07-07
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Nasdaq's growth is slowing or if it can maintain momentum. Investors look for consistent growth.
Confirms:Q2 net revenue growth comes in below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net revenue growth meets or exceeds 13% year over year.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Nasdaq continues its strong revenue growth. Investors will look for trends in ARR and revenue across divisions.
Confirms one read:Q2 net revenue growth exceeds 14% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 net revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong earnings can signal resilience in a challenging market. It may improve market perception.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report shows results that match or exceed estimates.
Disproves:The Q2 earnings report shows results much lower than estimates.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may impact Nasdaq's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the financial sector drops below its median level.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the financial sector remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Financial Technology is a key growth driver for Nasdaq. Slower growth could indicate market challenges.
Confirms:Financial Technology revenue grew less than 18% compared to last year.
Disproves:Financial Technology revenue grew at least 18% compared to last year.
Why it matters: ARR growth shows how strong Nasdaq's subscription services are. Slower growth may mean problems.
Confirms:ARR growth reported below 12% year over year.
Disproves:ARR growth reported at or above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in tax rate guidance can affect net income and investor sentiment. Maintaining guidance shows stability.
Confirms one read:Non-GAAP tax rate guidance remains between 22.5% to 24.5%.
Confirms the other:Non-GAAP tax rate guidance changes outside the 22.5% to 24.5% range.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show Nasdaq wants to return money to shareholders. A drop may worry investors.
Confirms:Share buybacks were below $500 million in Q2.
Disproves:Share repurchases reported at or above $500 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show Nasdaq's trust in its finances. They also show a commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Confirms:Nasdaq announced more share buybacks over $500 million.
Disproves:There are no new share buyback announcements or plans to cut buybacks.