Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$96.88-1.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NDAQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
NDAQ — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. On July 23, 2026 , Nasdaq issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: This will show if Nasdaq's growth is slowing or if it can maintain momentum. Investors look for consistent growth.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue growth comes in below 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net revenue growth meets or exceeds 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong earnings can signal resilience in a challenging market. It may improve market perception.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows results that match or exceed estimates.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report shows results much lower than estimates.
Why it matters: Many new clients in Financial Technology show that Nasdaq's solutions are in demand. This points to growth for the company.
Supportive ifFinancial Technology signs more than 60 new clients in Q3.
Worry ifFinancial Technology signs fewer than 60 new clients in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes to the credit agreement can impact how Nasdaq manages its money. It can also change their spending plans.
Watch forNew credit agreement has better terms or allows more borrowing.
Also watch forNew credit agreement has worse terms or allows less borrowing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,366 loss on $10,000 · 23.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may impact Nasdaq's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector drops below its median level.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth in the financial sector remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Index revenue is important for Nasdaq's growth. A slowdown may show less investor interest.
Worry ifQ3 Index revenue grew less than 30% from last year.
Less concerning ifIndex revenue growth remains at or above 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This metric tests if the strong growth trend in Financial Technology continues. A slowdown could signal issues in client demand or market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 Financial Technology revenue grew less than 15% from last year.
Less concerning ifFinancial Technology revenue grew at least 15% from last year.
Why it matters: Buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifCompany announces completion of at least $500 million in share buybacks by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo major share buyback news or activity by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Nasdaq cares about giving money back to shareholders. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.31 per share.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is cut or not maintained at $0.31.
Why it matters: Changes in tax rate guidance can affect net income and investor sentiment. Maintaining guidance shows stability.
Watch forNon-GAAP tax rate guidance remains between 22.5% to 24.5%.
Also watch forNon-GAAP tax rate guidance changes outside the 22.5% to 24.5% range.
Why it matters: This shows how much Nasdaq is giving back to shareholders. A drop may change spending plans.
Worry ifShare buyback activity was under $300 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifShare repurchase activity at or above $300 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Solutions revenue growth is key to Nasdaq's overall performance. A slowdown could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 Solutions revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSolutions revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Why it matters: ARR growth shows the health of Nasdaq's subscription-based business. Slowing growth could indicate issues.
Worry ifARR growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifARR growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows that the company is confident in its cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a quarterly cash dividend increase from $0.31 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly cash dividend from $0.31 per share.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the $2.5 billion already approved.
Worry ifNo updates or reductions in the share repurchase program.