Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$106.83-2.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NDAQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 44.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NDAQ — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-22
Other Events. On October 22, 2026 , Nasdaq issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Market Services growth slowed from 11% in Q2 to 2% in Q3. A rebound would show stronger momentum; flat growth would extend the slowdown.
Watch forMarket Services net revenue growth rises above 2% year over year in the next quarterly report.
Also watch forMarket Services net revenue growth stays at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This is a clear test of Nasdaq's plan to extend trading hours. A launch would mark progress on its Always-On market effort.
Supportive ifNasdaq begins 23/5 trading on December 6, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifNasdaq delays the launch past December 6 or does not begin 23/5 trading.
Why it matters: Financial Technology is a key source of recurring growth. A steady pace would back the One Nasdaq plan; slower growth would raise concern.
Watch forFinancial Technology ARR growth stays at or above 18% year over year in the next quarterly report.
Also watch forFinancial Technology ARR growth falls below 16%, the reported rate in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Index revenue rose 39% as net inflows set a record. Continued inflows would support this growth; a sharp drop would weaken it.
Watch forTrailing 12-month Index net inflows stay at or above $141 billion in the next report.
Also watch forTrailing 12-month Index net inflows fall below $109 billion, the level reported in Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $256 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,366 loss on $10,000 · 23.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.