Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NextEra Energy (NEE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$88.25-0.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.39 → 4.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NEE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Compound annual EPS growth of 8%+ through 2032 | The company targets 8%+ EPS growth through 2032. | Broken | EPS CAGR falls below 8% through 2032 | Diluted EPS growth: 93.22% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% CAGR. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 202693.220339 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NEE is a utility with a renewables and storage growth engine, so this is a steady business with a growth component. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but management execution and earnings quality are rated neutral.
The valuation evidence describes NEE as cheap, while its valuation model shows a 1.22 premium versus peers and expectations below the model’s estimate. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not point to a highly vulnerable setup based on expectations alone.
Near term, adjusted earnings per share rose year over year in each of the first three reported quarters of 2026, and the company added renewables and storage projects to its backlog. Management has stated a goal of at least 8% adjusted earnings growth through 2032, but the longer-term delivery is still ahead; the Dominion combination has approvals in progress and has not closed. Near-term miss risk is rated low, though a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether NEE maintains guidance and continues delivering earnings and project additions. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on progress toward the stated earnings growth goal and whether the Dominion combination produces financial benefits after closing. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength at utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance would challenge the setup.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NEE has a supported but not fully proven growth thesis: recent results are strong, while longer-term execution and merger benefits remain important open questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| NextEra Energy aims for adjusted EPS near $4.02 in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $3.92 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage political interference claims and legal risks | A supporting condition in NextEra Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No major new legal settlements. | Intact | New legal settlements exceeding $150 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth supported by Dominion acquisition and data center demand | The Dominion acquisition supports growth and data center demand. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 9.46% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=21% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 20269.459459 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.40 → $4.39 · observed estimates
$33.96B → $33.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.40 | $33,955,008,065 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.40 | $33,955,008,065 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.40 | $33,955,729,979 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.40 | $34,552,937,340 | 23 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.40 | $33,955,729,979 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.42 | $34,643,789,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.42 | $34,643,789,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.42 | $34,643,789,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.42 | $34,643,789,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.42 | $34,643,789,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.42 | $34,589,089,550 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.42 | $34,602,938,060 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.41 | $33,971,337,343 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.40 | $34,327,566,401 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.40 | $34,327,566,401 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.40 | $34,327,835,130 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.40 | $34,327,835,130 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.40 | $34,327,835,130 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,171 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,173 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,173 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,173 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.39 | $33,947,369,173 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.39 | $33,947,402,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.39 | $33,947,402,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.39 | $33,947,402,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.39 | $33,947,402,503 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.39 | $33,947,156,411 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.39 | $33,947,156,411 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.39 | $33,947,156,411 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.39 | $33,947,156,411 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.39 | $33,947,156,411 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.39 | $33,800,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.33 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.39 | $33,800,136,160 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.39 | $33,798,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.39 | $33,798,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.39 | $33,798,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.39 | $33,798,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.39 | $33,798,144,383 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.39 | $33,780,198,811 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.38 | $33,743,897,696 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.38 | $33,743,897,698 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.38 | $33,743,897,698 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.38 | $33,743,700,910 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.38 | $33,743,700,910 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.39 | $33,665,661,917 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.40 | $33,607,203,932 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.39 | $33,477,185,177 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.39 | $33,484,413,108 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.39 | $33,484,413,108 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.39 | $33,484,413,108 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.39 | $33,484,413,108 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.39 | $33,484,413,108 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.39 | $33,590,870,019 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.39 | $33,590,870,019 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,304 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,304 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,304 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,304 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,306 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.39 | $33,496,584,306 | 15 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.