NextEra Energy (NEE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.43-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Compound annual EPS growth of 8%+ through 2032: EPS CAGR 9.0% vs 8.0% target.
NextEra Energy aims for adjusted EPS near $4.02 in 2026. The company targets 8%+ EPS growth through 2032. The Dominion acquisition supports growth and data center demand. Profit and revenue growth should stay strong.
The recent political settlement may hurt reputation and operations. The stock is expensive with fragile quality signals. Growth could slow if integration or market conditions worsen.
The price is about 11% above our fair value near $80. Analysts expect 21% revenue growth. Our fair value is 25% below the Street median, showing some caution.
Breaks if: EPS CAGR falls below 8% through 2032
Sustain a compound annual growth rate of adjusted earnings per share of 8% or more annually through 2032 and target the same growth rate from 2032 through 2035.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to achieving high-end earnings guidance and long-term growth targets.
The market appears to price in a cheap valuation relative to peers, reflecting a divergence driven by a durable premium. However, there is an expectations gap, suggesting that the market may be cautious about the company's execution quality and sector headwinds.
Management is on track to meet its near-term earnings targets, but the trajectory for long-term growth remains mixed. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low risk of missing earnings expectations, despite a history of misses.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the potential for favorable interest rate changes and the performance of sector peers. A cut in guidance would be unfavorable, while continued earnings beats from industry leaders could provide positive momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company beat earnings expectations recently. It also secured funding for gas projects, increasing revenue potential. The merger with Dominion Energy has cleared shareholder votes, supporting growth. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates the goal of 8%+ compound annual growth in adjusted EPS through 2032 and beyond. The 2025 base adjusted EPS was $3.71, and guidance supports this growth trajectory, indicating ongoing delivery on this long-term growth priority.
“We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy expects to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and is targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy also continues to expect a compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share of 8%+ annually through 2032.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.92 in FY26
Continue to achieve adjusted earnings per share in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 for 2026, targeting the high end of that range.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. NextEra Energy's guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS remains in the range of $3.92 to $4.02, with management targeting the high end. This aligns with the trajectory of adjusted EPS growth observed in quarterly results, indicating delivery on this priority.
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 and is targeting the high end of that range.”
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02 and is targeting the high end of that range.”
“NextEra Energy continues to expect 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.92 to $4.02.”
Breaks if: New legal settlements exceeding $150 million
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year
Sustain a compound annual growth rate of adjusted earnings per share of 8% or more annually through 2032 and target the same growth rate from 2032 through 2035.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterates the goal of 8%+ compound annual growth in adjusted EPS through 2032 and beyond. The 2025 base adjusted EPS was $3.71, and guidance supports this growth trajectory, indicating ongoing delivery on this long-term growth priority.
“We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy expects to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032 and is targeting the same from 2032 through 2035.”
“NextEra Energy also continues to expect a compound annual growth rate in adjusted earnings per share of 8%+ annually through 2032.”
Overall, the outlook for NextEra Energy over the next 1 to 3 years is shaped by its ability to navigate sector challenges while delivering on growth targets. Not investment advice.