NextEra Energy (NEE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.43-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers
NEE — divestiture
Dated 2026-08-10
of a Current Report on Form 8-K. The purpose of this Current Report on Form 8-K is to file the Financial Information (as defined below), and to allow such Financial Information to be incorporated by reference into NEE's registration statements previously filed with the SEC under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities Act). Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Pri…
Why it matters: More regulatory capital helps revenue. It shows the company is strong.
Supportive ifRegulatory capital at FPL grows over 9% each year.
Worry ifRegulatory capital growth is less than 9% each year.
Why it matters: Rolling out $2.25 billion in bill credits may boost customer satisfaction and loyalty.
Supportive ifThe $2.25 billion bill credits for Dominion customers start as planned.
Worry ifDelays or issues in the rollout of the bill credits program.
Why it matters: New large-load transactions can greatly affect revenue and growth.
Supportive ifNextEra will announce at least one large-load transaction by year-end.
Worry ifNo large-load transactions are announced by the end of the year.
Why it matters: Increasing base rates can boost revenue and help meet growth targets.
Supportive ifManagement says they raised base rates. This helps grow revenue.
Worry ifThere are no news about base rate increases. There are also no delays.
Why it matters: The merger is key for NextEra's growth and financial strength. Approval will boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifShareholders of Dominion Energy and NEE agree to the merger.
Worry ifRegulators say no to the merger. This causes big delays in approval.
Why it matters: Approval is important to finish the merger. It could help growth and customer benefits.
Supportive ifAll needed approvals are granted by state and federal agencies.
Worry ifA key regulatory group says no to the merger.
Why it matters: Recent M&A activity may change NextEra's growth. Investors will look for benefits.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news on M&A integration. They expect synergies.
Worry ifNegative news or delays related to M&A that hinder growth expectations.
Why it matters: Higher base rates will bring in more money. This will affect NextEra's finances.
Supportive ifNextEra reports an increase in annual revenue by $945 million due to base rate hikes.
Worry ifNextEra fails to demonstrate any revenue increase from the planned base rate hikes.
Why it matters: Achieving the high end of the EPS guidance shows strong financial performance and growth potential.
Supportive ifNextEra reports adjusted EPS of $4.02 or higher for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $3.92 for 2026.
Why it matters: Staying at the high end of EPS guidance signals strong operational performance and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says adjusted EPS guidance is $4.02 or more.
Worry ifManagement cuts adjusted EPS guidance to less than $3.92.
Why it matters: Approval of the base rate increase would help revenue and stability.
Supportive ifApproval from the Florida Public Service Commission for the base rate increase.
Worry ifRejection of the base rate increase by the Florida Public Service Commission.
Why it matters: New contracts with large customers show strong demand and revenue chance.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one large transaction under FPL's tariff.
Worry ifNo new large-load contracts announced by the end of the year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,639 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.