Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
NeoVolta Inc (NEOV)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.11-7.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.24 → 0.24 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NEOV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin stays near 46% next quarter | Its gross margin target is strong at 46% next quarter. | Broken | gross margin falls below 46% next quarter | Gross margin: -8,465.07% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 46% next quarter. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q4. Sep 23, 2026-8,465.066865 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making and faces volatility in management and financial results, which adds to its risk profile.
The market appears to price in a durable premium compared to peers, indicating high expectations despite the company's current struggles. The valuation reflects a significant expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating a turnaround that has not yet materialized.
Fundamentally, NEOV's trajectory is uncertain. Recent performance has been weak, and the company missed its latest earnings expectations, which raises concerns about future results. Management's focus on ramping up production and expanding its commercial pipeline is positive but needs to translate into tangible financial improvements.
The long-term thesis hinges on several key factors. If NEOV can successfully ramp up production at its manufacturing facility and convert its commercial pipeline into orders, it could improve its financial standing. However, the performance of sector bellwethers will also be crucial; if they miss expectations, NEOV may face additional headwinds.
Overall, NEOV's situation requires close monitoring due to its high-risk profile and recent performance issues. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in NeoVolta Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Georgia installation operational by June and JV contribution of $8 million by May 31. |
| Under Pressure |
| installation delays beyond June or JV contribution misses $8 million target |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $2 million next quarter and $4.5 million in FY25 | NeoVolta is growing revenue quickly, aiming for about $2 million next quarter and $4.5 million in 2025. | Broken | revenue falls below $2 million next quarter or below $4.5 million in FY25 | Revenue: $13,460 FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $2 million next quarter and >= $4.5 million FY25. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Sep 23, 202613,460 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.29 → $0.24 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.29 | $415,714,125 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.33 | $428,583,120 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $429,567,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $429,567,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.26 | $429,567,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.26 | $429,567,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.26 | $429,567,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.26 | $428,822,320 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.24 | $428,827,200 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.