NeoVolta Inc (NEOV)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.28+9.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 135.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -23.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 158.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
NEOV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 23, 2026, NeoVolta, Inc. (the “Company”), issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibits shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after th…
Why it matters: The plant ramp is central to NeoVolta’s move into utility and C&I storage. A delay would put that plan at risk.
Supportive ifOn the November 9 earnings call, NeoVolta says production has started. It also says site acceptance tests are done and commissioning is complete.
Worry ifThe call reports that testing or commissioning is incomplete, or that production has slipped beyond FY2027 Q2.
Why it matters: The signed deal covers 9 GWh of cells from 2027 through 2031. Deliveries would test whether supply can support the ramp.
Supportive ifNeoVolta or SK On confirms the first U.S.-made cell deliveries under the signed 9 GWh supply deal.
Worry ifEither company reports that the signed supply deal was ended, cut, or delayed beyond 2027.
Why it matters: The company added a secured loan and lender warrants as it funds the factory ramp. New borrowing or warrants could add pressure.
Worry ifThe November 9 update reports more debt or warrants, or says the loan commitment increased by up to $10 million.
Less concerning ifThe update reports no added loan or warrants. It shows available cash covers ramp needs without new financing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$350 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,156 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,241 loss on $10,000 · 72.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.