Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$127.01-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.60 → 8.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NNI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain $435 million unsecured credit line | Nelnet secured a $435 million credit line to boost cash flow. | Intact | Credit line falls below $400 million or is lost | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financially sensitive business with a multi-year view that depends on execution, rather than a clear turnaround or steady growth story. The thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing on key priorities, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
NNI is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is strongly negative, suggesting market expectations are already subdued. The priced-in signal is justified and fragility is low, but that does not remove the risk from continued earnings misses.
Near term, the run of misses and a 41% estimated miss probability make the next earnings report an important risk. Over the multi-year view, Canadian student loan servicing has supported loan servicing revenue growth, and the new credit agreement supports liquidity; company quality has also improved, while management is rated neutral.
A further guidance cut would add to the negative earnings pattern, while rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could weigh on NNI and the broader Financials sector. Continued strength from sector bellwethers such as V, MA, and AXP could support sector momentum, but NNI’s own execution and results remain central to the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NNI’s long-term thesis rests on management converting servicing growth and liquidity support into stronger results, while limiting further earnings misses. The low fragility signal and cheap peer valuation are balanced by weak recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company aims to manage CEO and executive changes smoothly. |
| Intact |
| Leadership changes cause major disruptions or loss of key talent |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 65% next year | Analysts expect revenue to grow about 65% next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below ~40% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Growth in student loan servicing in Canada | A primary condition in Nelnet, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow Canadian student loan servicing volume. | Intact | Canadian student loan servicing volume declines significantly | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.58 → $8.50 · observed estimates
$1.79B → $1.77B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.58 | $1,794,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.58 | $1,793,530,700 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.60 | $1,774,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.60 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.50 | $1,774,270,600 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.