Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$127.58+4.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NNI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 89.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
NNI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2026, Nelnet, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release with respect to its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The above information and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall such information and Exhibit be deemed incorporated by refere…
Why it matters: Education Technology and Payments revenue barely grew in Q2, while costs rose to support customers and new tools. A wider gap could reduce segment earnings.
Worry ifQ3 NBS revenue is flat or down year over year and segment net income falls below the Q2 2026 level of $14.7 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 NBS revenue grows year over year and net income holds at or above $14.7 million.
Why it matters: Bank net interest income rose, but Q2 growth came with a lower net interest margin. A further margin decline could weaken earnings from its growing loan book.
Worry ifQ3 Nelnet Bank net interest margin falls again from Q2, or net income after tax declines from $10.5 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin holds at or above Q2 levels and net income after tax stays at or above $10.5 million.
Why it matters: Canada added servicing revenue, but Q2 operating margin fell. More revenue with a stronger margin would show the new business is adding value.
Watch forQ3 Loan Servicing and Systems revenue rises from a year earlier. Operating margin also improves from Q2.
Also watch forQ3 segment revenue falls from a year earlier. Or operating margin falls more as Canada integration costs continue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $174 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,528 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.