Nelnet, Inc. (NNI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$127.31+0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NNI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 74.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NNI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Nelnet, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release with respect to its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The above information and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall such information and Exhibit be deemed incorporated by reference in…
Why it matters: Successful integration could increase revenue from Canada. This would help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue from Canada grew more than 10% in Q2.
Worry ifIntegration problems cause revenue to stay the same or drop from Canada.
Why it matters: Loan loss provisions show how well credit quality and risk management are working.
Worry ifLoan loss provisions remain stable or decrease compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifLoan loss provisions rose a lot since Q2. This shows higher credit risk.
Why it matters: Higher provisions may mean worse credit quality. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifLoan loss provisions reported above $41.3 million for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifLoan loss provisions are under $41.3 million. This suggests stable credit quality.
Why it matters: The Q3 earnings results will show if revenue growth continues or slows. This is key for Nelnet's future.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth above 10% year over year, confirming strong performance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 5% year over year, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Nelnet's performance and investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: The GDP report can affect Nelnet's business and how consumers act.
Watch forGDP growth is above 2% in the second estimate. This shows a strong economy.
Also watch forGDP growth is below 1% in the second estimate. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: Expansion into Canada is a key growth priority. Success here could boost revenue and market presence.
Supportive ifNew contracts or partnerships in Canada leading to at least $10 million in revenue.
Worry ifNo new contracts or partnerships announced in Canada within the next six months.
Why it matters: A drop in this revenue could signal challenges in Nelnet's core servicing business.
Worry ifRevenue from Loan Servicing and Systems falls below $132.2 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue from Loan Servicing and Systems is over $132.2 million. This shows growth.
Why it matters: The new credit agreement can help with growth and buying other companies.
Supportive ifManagement plans to use the $435 million credit line for key investments.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays in accessing the new credit line, limiting growth.
Why it matters: The new credit line is meant to support future growth. Its effectiveness will show how well Nelnet is managing finances.
Watch forFinancial reports show better liquidity ratios. They also show lower debt levels.
Also watch forFinancial reports show no change in liquidity ratios. They also show higher debt levels.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows ongoing problems with making money. Investors might react badly.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $66.7 million, the amount reported in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income is over $66.7 million. This shows recovery or stability.
Why it matters: The Canadian business can help Nelnet grow its loan servicing.
Supportive ifManagement says the Canadian loan servicing is on track and making money.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems that delay revenue from the Canadian deal.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Nelnet continues to face challenges after the Q1 earnings miss.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $70 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income is over $75 million. This shows recovery and better performance.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue would confirm concerns about growth slowing in Nelnet's core segments.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines year over year worse than -5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: New credit agreement details can change how Nelnet manages money and grows.
Watch forNelnet shares a new credit agreement with good terms.
Also watch forNelnet has trouble getting a new credit agreement or the terms are bad.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $174 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,527 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.