NRG Energy (NRG)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$137.44-0.41%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track NRG free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Track NRG free→NRG Energy is growing with new power plants and a CEO focused on growth. Revenue is expected near $5.8 billion in 2026. The company plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through buybacks. Profit margins and cash flow targets are reaffirmed for 2026.
Earnings recently missed estimates by 17.7%. Free cash flow yield is negative, showing cash flow pressure. The stock is in a selling-off phase with a 19% drawdown from highs. Management is volatile and progress on financial goals is mixed.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $141, reflecting roughly 8% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $7.9 in FY26
NRG is reaffirming its financial guidance for 2026, maintaining its previously set targets.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $5,325 - $5,825 million for 2026. Despite reaffirmation, financials show a decrease in Adjusted Net Income from $531 million in 2025-Q1 to $308 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
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“Reaffirming 2026 guidance ranges and capital allocation.”
“NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”
“NRG is trending at the upper end of its guidance ranges.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.1 billion in FY26
NRG plans to return $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. NRG completed $817 million in share repurchases by April 30, 2026, as part of its $1.0 billion target for 2026. The trajectory shows progress towards the buyback goal, with a significant portion already achieved.
“The Company plans to return $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.”
“NRG completed $817 million in share repurchases.”
Breaks if: Significant leadership disruption or strategy reversal
Robert Gaudette succeeded Larry Coben as CEO, completing the leadership transition.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.3 billion in FY26
NRG is reaffirming its financial guidance for 2026, maintaining its previously set targets.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $5,325 - $5,825 million for 2026. Despite reaffirmation, financials show a decrease in Adjusted Net Income from $531 million in 2025-Q1 to $308 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance.
“Reaffirming 2026 guidance ranges and capital allocation.”
“NRG is reaffirming its guidance for 2026 as set forth below.”
“NRG is trending at the upper end of its guidance ranges.”
Breaks if: Buybacks fall short of $800 million by mid-2026
NRG plans to return $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. NRG completed $817 million in share repurchases by April 30, 2026, as part of its $1.0 billion target for 2026. The trajectory shows progress towards the buyback goal, with a significant portion already achieved.
“The Company plans to return $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.”
“NRG completed $817 million in share repurchases.”