Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$200.13-3.17%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.75 → 15.81 EPS · FY ending Jan 25, 2028 · 32 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 33 to 32; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NVDA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Center revenue grows to at least $75 billion in 2026-Q2 | Nvidia leads AI and data center growth with 92% revenue rise to $75.2B in 2026-Q2. | Intact | Data Center revenue falls below $39 billion in 2026-Q2 | Data Center revenue: $89.023B FY2027-Q2; reported segment. Published target: >= $75 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 26, 202689,023,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-25 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth technology business whose multi-year case depends heavily on continued AI and data-center expansion. The thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum has weakened and earnings quality is rated fragile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure places NVDA as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 55% premium, and the model has low confidence. The expectations-gap reading is negative, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what the market assumes; overall, priced-in fragility is rated low and the tag is justified.
Near-term results have been strong, including an earnings beat, and data-center revenue reached $89.0 billion in 2026-Q3, up 117% year over year. Management remains on track with stated priorities, but momentum has fallen, and a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk even though the estimated miss probability is low.
Over the next few quarters, the central test is whether management can sustain data-center growth without cutting guidance. A second favorable condition would be stabilization among major technology peers; Fed rate cuts could also support the sector, but neither outcome is assured.
For a 1-3 year view, NVDA has strong recent business performance and an intact AI growth thesis, balanced by weaker momentum and fragile earnings quality. The evidence is mixed on valuation, so sustained execution is the main hinge. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Highlights Data Center • First-quarter revenue was a record $75.2 billion, up 21% from the previous quarter and up 92% from a year ago.” ““The buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.”
Gaming revenue grows to at least $6.4 billion in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.4 billion. | Improving | Gaming revenue falls below $5 billion in 2026-Q2 | Gaming unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Gaming revenue: $3.727B in FY2026-Q4. Latest source period is FY2027-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Feb 25, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 75% in 2026-Q3 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~74.9%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 70% in 2026-Q3 | Gross margin: 74.98% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~74.9%. Target period ends 2026-07-31; this observation covers 2027-Q2. Aug 26, 202674.975317 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return at least $20 billion to shareholders in 2026-Q2 | A supporting condition in NVIDIA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $20 billion. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $10 billion in 2026-Q2 | Cash returned to shareholders: approximately $26B FY2027-Q2; reported cash return. Published target: >= $20 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 26, 2026Approximately 26,000,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “On May 18, 2026, the Board of Directors approved an additional $80.0 billion to the Company’s share repurchase authorization, without expiration.” “NVIDIA is increasing its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share of common stock, which will be paid on June 26, 2026, to all shareholders of record on June 4, 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.77 → $15.81 · observed estimates
$563.21B → $693.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.77 | $563,213,028,153 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.77 | $563,213,028,153 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.75 | $562,864,133,910 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.78 | $563,601,060,724 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.76 | $564,607,382,867 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.79 | $569,550,492,974 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.80 | $569,986,401,424 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.82 | $570,718,374,758 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.84 | $571,230,956,424 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.80 | $570,265,933,196 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.81 | $570,333,016,529 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.33 | $671,826,750,145 | 31 / 41 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.52 | $678,900,857,911 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.52 | $681,176,855,418 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.52 | $680,707,426,876 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.59 | $682,880,679,314 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.59 | $682,880,679,314 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.59 | $684,133,317,946 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.64 | $685,851,843,370 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.64 | $685,851,844,965 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.64 | $685,851,844,965 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.70 | $687,155,353,439 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.70 | $687,155,338,221 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.70 | $687,155,338,221 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.70 | $687,086,849,250 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.70 | $687,354,277,951 | 33 / 42 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.71 | $687,432,131,032 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.71 | $687,432,131,032 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.74 | $688,100,162,778 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.74 | $688,100,168,692 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.74 | $691,334,268,187 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.74 | $691,401,973,454 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.75 | $691,862,290,915 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.75 | $691,849,424,639 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.77 | $692,443,594,524 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.77 | $692,443,594,524 | 33 / 43 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.77 | $694,610,418,629 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.77 | $694,610,426,694 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.79 | $695,178,367,016 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.79 | $695,178,367,016 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.79 | $695,178,367,016 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.79 | $695,178,367,016 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.79 | $695,178,367,016 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.80 | $695,178,360,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.80 | $695,178,360,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.80 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.81 | $695,177,860,565 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.81 | $693,667,100,873 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.81 | $693,667,100,873 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.81 | $693,667,100,873 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.81 | $693,667,100,873 | 32 / 42 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.81 | $693,667,100,873 | 32 / 42 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 59 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.