NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$200.13-3.17%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 96.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
NVDA — government funding
Dated 2026-09-03
Other Events. On September 2, 2026, NVIDIA Corporation (“NVIDIA”) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Hugging Face, Inc. (“Hugging Face”). Hugging Face operates a platform and community for developing, sharing and deploying open-source models, datasets and applications. The transaction includes an approximately $11.9 billion purchase price payable to Hugging Face stockholders, subject to certain adjustments, and an equity-based retention program of up to approximately $1.0 billion…
Why it matters: The Ohio campus is planned to add 4.25 IT-GW first. Delays could slow a major planned AI compute site.
Worry ifA company filing or release reports a delay to the first 4.25 IT-GW phase or to its planned 2028 start.
Less concerning ifSB Energy confirms power and site work remain on track for phased capacity starting in 2028.
Why it matters: NVIDIA agreed to pay about $11.9 billion for Hugging Face. The closing and any changes to the terms will show how the deal moves forward.
Watch forNVIDIA files a notice that the deal closes on terms near the stated $11.9 billion price.
Also watch forNVIDIA reports the deal is canceled, delayed, or changed by a material amount.
Why it matters: NVIDIA guided to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. A result above the low end would show strong demand continued.
Supportive ifOn November 18, Q3 revenue is above $105.8 billion and gross margin is at least 73.5%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $105.8 billion, or gross margin is below 73.5%.
Why it matters: Data Center made up most of Q2 revenue and grew 117% from a year ago. A sharp slowdown would weaken the main growth story.
Worry ifQ3 Data Center revenue is below $89.0 billion, the Q2 level. Or management reports a year-over-year decline.
Less concerning ifQ3 Data Center revenue rises above $89.0 billion and grows year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $385 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,940 loss on $10,000 · 19.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.