NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$230.36+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVDA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 79.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NVDA — government funding
Dated 2026-09-03
Other Events. On September 2, 2026, NVIDIA Corporation (“NVIDIA”) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Hugging Face, Inc. (“Hugging Face”). Hugging Face operates a platform and community for developing, sharing and deploying open-source models, datasets and applications. The transaction includes an approximately $11.9 billion purchase price payable to Hugging Face stockholders, subject to certain adjustments, and an equity-based retention program of up to approximately $1.0 billion…
Why it matters: This guidance reflects NVIDIA's growth expectations in AI and Data Center markets. A strong outlook could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 is $78 billion or higher.
Worry ifRevenue guidance falls below $76 billion.
Why it matters: New partnerships can enhance NVIDIA's market position and drive growth in AI and data center segments.
Supportive ifNVIDIA has new partnerships or expansions with big cloud providers like AWS and Google Cloud.
Worry ifNo new partnerships are announced, or current ones are reduced.
Why it matters: New AI factory announcements would show NVIDIA's lead in AI infrastructure growth.
Supportive ifNVIDIA has new partnerships or expansions for AI factories.
Worry ifNo new news about AI factory expansions.
Why it matters: High gross margins show good pricing power and cost control. This helps investors trust NVIDIA's profits.
Supportive ifQ2 gross margins are reported above 74.9%.
Worry ifQ2 gross margins fall below 74.9%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $396 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,021 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows demand for NVIDIA's AI and data center products. This backs management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $91 billion or higher, confirming strong demand for AI products.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $89 billion. This shows weaker demand than expected.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifNVIDIA announces new share repurchase plans or faster buyback programs.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements are made, or existing programs are scaled back.
Why it matters: Earnings per share above this level show strong profits and good operations. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceed $2.39.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share are below $2.39.
Why it matters: Weak growth in gaming revenue may show less demand for NVIDIA's gaming products.
Worry ifGaming revenue growth below 10% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifGaming revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show good use of money and trust in future cash flow.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks that go beyond the current $80 billion limit.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or a cut in the current buyback limit.
Why it matters: New partnerships can improve NVIDIA's market strength and growth in AI and data centers.
Supportive ifThey announced a new partnership with a big cloud or tech company.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced or current partnerships end.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance confirms strong demand for NVIDIA's AI and data center products.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $106 billion. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Completing this deal would improve NVIDIA's AI skills and ecosystem.
Supportive ifAn official announcement says the deal for Hugging Face is complete.
Worry ifNews of the acquisition being delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Sustaining this growth rate would signal strong demand for NVIDIA's data center products.
Supportive ifData Center revenue grew over 100% compared to last year.
Worry ifData Center revenue grew less than 90% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Progress on this campus shows NVIDIA's commitment to AI infrastructure and could drive future growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about milestones in the PORTS-Pike campus or partnerships.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the PORTS-Pike campus development.