NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$196.93+0.71%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $196.93. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $197 NVDA trades at 34× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median. Our $218 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $139–$500. Not investment advice.
$139.00 – $500.00 (median $300.00) · 28 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 133% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.9 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.33/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $300.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $191.15 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $191.63 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $32.45 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $113.45 | 19.4 | 5.85 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $245.56 | 50.3 | 4.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $428.48 | 73.4 | 5.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $108.96 | 10.5 | 10.39 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $133.85 | 22.9 | 5.84 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $27.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $268.39 | 46.0 | 5.84 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $446.48 | 73.4 | 6.09 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $651.67 | 73.4 | 8.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $293.90 | 10.5 | 28.03 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $203.57 | 22.9 | 8.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $408.18 | 46.0 | 8.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $861.83 | 73.4 | 11.75 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $388.69 | 10.5 | 37.07 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $269.22 | 22.9 | 11.75 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $539.82 | 46.0 | 11.75 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.