Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$265.01+0.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
18.18 → 18.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Redeem senior notes totaling $750M | A supporting condition in NXP Semiconductors's published investment case. The stated target is Redeem $750M senior notes. | Recovered | Failure to redeem $750M senior notes by 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a semiconductor growth and capital-return story, with growth focused on automotive, industrial and IoT, edge AI, and data center infrastructure. The long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and earnings quality is fragile.
NXPI is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence says fragility is not fully reflected in the market setup. The expectations gap is negative, but the supplied data does not explain its scale in plain terms, so the market’s specific assumptions are unclear.
Near-term results show strong revenue growth, with automotive and industrial and IoT revenue both higher year over year; management priorities in those areas are rated on track. However, an October earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses raise concern despite a low stated probability of another miss. Capital returns remain substantial, including a new repurchase authorization.
Near term, the next guidance update matters: a cut would be a meaningful negative, while steady guidance would ease that concern. Over the multi-year view, progress in software-defined vehicles, physical AI, and data center infrastructure is central. Wider technology-sector stability and possible rate cuts are additional favorable factors, but neither is assured by the evidence.
Over the next one to three years, NXPI combines improving business momentum and on-track strategic priorities with fragile earnings quality and recent misses. The thesis remains intact, but continued execution and the next guidance update are important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $2.8 next quarter. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $2.6 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $3.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.8. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 20263.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above $3.45B next quarter | Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $2.8 next quarter. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $3.15B next quarter | Revenue: $3.786B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.45B. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 20263,786,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.94 → $18.35 · observed estimates
$15.68B → $16.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.94 | $15,680,425,703 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.94 | $15,680,425,703 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.94 | $15,680,425,703 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.90 | $15,659,303,440 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.90 | $15,659,303,440 | 25 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.16 | $15,878,981,083 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.22 | $15,925,896,953 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.17 | $15,878,449,510 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.20 | $15,925,896,953 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.17 | $15,878,449,510 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.17 | $15,878,449,510 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.20 | $15,925,896,953 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.10 | $15,857,452,420 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.20 | $15,925,896,953 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.10 | $15,857,452,420 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.10 | $15,857,452,420 | 26 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.19 | $15,920,983,678 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $18.18 | $15,931,630,795 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $18.18 | $15,931,629,130 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $18.18 | $15,935,976,956 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $18.18 | $15,935,976,956 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $18.18 | $15,935,976,956 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $18.18 | $15,935,978,664 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $18.18 | $15,935,978,664 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $18.23 | $15,966,021,220 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $18.23 | $15,966,021,220 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $18.30 | $16,000,358,720 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $18.30 | $16,000,358,720 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $18.30 | $16,000,358,720 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $18.30 | $16,000,358,720 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $18.37 | $16,039,719,362 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $18.37 | $16,039,736,028 | 18 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $18.43 | $16,090,413,125 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $18.32 | $16,093,557,980 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $18.32 | $16,093,557,980 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $18.35 | $16,093,561,726 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $18.35 | $16,093,561,726 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $18.35 | $16,093,561,726 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $18.35 | $16,093,561,726 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $18.35 | $16,093,560,226 | 18 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 14 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.