NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$227.84+1.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
NXPI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Facility Agreement On September 1, 2026, NXP B.V., a wholly owned, direct subsidiary of NXP Semiconductors N.V. (the “ Company ”), entered into a facility agreement (the “ Facility Agreement ”) with European Investment Bank (“ EIB ”), which provides for a $250.0 million unsecured senior loan facility. The proceeds from borrowings under the Facility Agreement are expected to be used, to fund the design and implementation of an expansion of an existing…
Why it matters: More buybacks would show confidence in cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifMore share repurchases will be announced after July 9, 2026.
Worry ifNo more share repurchases will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New AI products would demonstrate NXP's commitment to advancing its portfolio. This could drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new AI product launch in Q3.
Worry ifNo new AI product launches announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in key markets like automotive and IoT is important for NXP's growth plan.
Watch forManagement says there is strong growth in the automotive and IoT segments.
Also watch forManagement says there is stagnation or decline in these key markets.
Why it matters: The interim dividend payment shows financial strength. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time. This boosts confidence in NXP's financial health.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled, raising concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well NXP managed market challenges. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $2.00. This shows strong performance in the market.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.50, suggesting ongoing struggles in the market.
Why it matters: A gross margin above 57% shows good cost control and strong operations.
Supportive ifGross margin reported at or above 57% for Q3.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 56%. This may show operational problems.
Why it matters: Higher gross margin guidance shows good cost management. It also shows pricing power.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 expects a gross margin of over 57.5%. This shows good operational efficiency.
Worry ifQ2 2026 gross margin guidance is below 56.5%. This indicates possible cost pressures.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for NXP. It reflects the overall health of the semiconductor market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This has happened for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still above its median. This shows it is still strong.
Why it matters: Growth in core markets can boost revenue. This helps NXP's overall performance.
Supportive ifReports show significant growth in NXP's core markets, like automotive or IoT.
Worry ifReports show continued weakness or decline in NXP's core markets.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company has strong cash flow. It also shows a good capital return plan.
Supportive ifThe interim dividend of $1.014 is paid on time. This confirms the company is financially healthy.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled, raising concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: Growth in these segments is crucial for NXP's long-term strategy and revenue expansion.
Supportive ifRevenue from AI and software-defined vehicles is up over 15% from last year.
Worry ifRevenue from these areas grows under 10% from last year. This may show problems.
Why it matters: Successfully redeeming senior notes shows NXP's commitment to managing its debt. This can improve its financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says they will redeem more senior notes. This is beyond the current $750 million.
Worry ifThere are no new announcements on debt redemption. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Regular buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifNXP announces share buybacks of $32 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks fall below $20 million. This may show cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Improvement in core markets can drive growth for NXP. It is key for their long-term strategy.
Supportive ifManagement reports revenue is up year-over-year. This is from core end markets.
Worry ifRevenue from core end markets is still going down year-over-year.
Why it matters: This redemption shows NXP's focus on capital use. It may affect future cash flow.
Watch forCash flow from operations goes up a lot after the redemption.
Also watch forCash flow from operations goes down after the redemption. This shows possible financial strain.
Why it matters: Stable growth in automotive revenue shows strong demand in a key market for NXP.
Supportive ifAutomotive revenue growth is stable or above 6% compared to last year.
Worry ifAutomotive revenue growth drops below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More buybacks show confidence in financial health. They also show a commitment to return capital to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are over $100 million in Q3. This reflects strong cash flow and capital use.
Worry ifShare buybacks fall below $50 million in Q3, indicating potential cash flow issues.
Why it matters: More debt redemptions would show strong cash flow management and good capital use.
Supportive ifNXP announces more redemptions of senior notes or other debt.
Worry ifIf no more debt redemptions happen, it may suggest cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance would confirm strong demand in key markets like AI and vehicles.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at or above $3.75 billion.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was below $3.65 billion.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports NXP's capital return program and financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was over $800 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $700 million.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show shifts in how money is used and financial health.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the dividend per share.
Also watch forThere is a dividend cut or suspension announcement.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,315 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.