NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$265.01+0.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXPI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2026, NXP Semiconductors N.V. ("NXP") issued a press release regarding NXP’s financial results for its third quarter 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by refer…
Why it matters: NXP guided to Q4 revenue of $3.75 billion to $3.95 billion. A result below that range would break its near-term growth path.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $3.75 billion, the low end of NXP's guidance.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $3.75 billion and within the guided range.
Why it matters: BMW named NXP's ultra-wideband products for selected 2026 vehicles. A launch would show this win reached production.
Supportive ifBMW or NXP confirms a selected 2026 vehicle program has launched with NXP Trimension UWB products.
Worry ifBMW or NXP reports that the selected 2026 programs slipped, dropped the products, or launched without them.
Why it matters: Industrial & IoT revenue grew 39% year over year in Q3. More growth would support NXP's edge AI and intelligent systems push.
Supportive ifQ4 Industrial & IoT revenue tops $802 million and grows year over year.
Worry ifQ4 Industrial & IoT revenue falls below $802 million or the year-ago quarter's $579 million.
Why it matters: The board added $5 billion to the buyback authorization. Actual purchases would show follow-through on this capital return plan.
Supportive ifNXP reports share buybacks under its new $5 billion plan.
Worry ifNXP reports no purchases under its new plan in its next quarterly results, or pauses the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $413 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,418 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: NXP broke ground on an assembly and test expansion in Malaysia. Progress can show whether it is adding the capacity it planned.
Supportive ifNXP reports that the Malaysia expansion is complete or has started production.
Worry ifNXP reports that work has stopped, the opening has slipped, or planned capacity has been cut.