Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Realty Income (O)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.22+2.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.68 → 1.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for O yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand global addressable market via partnerships | A supporting condition in Realty Income's published investment case. The stated target is sustain expansion efforts. | Intact | no progress or reversal in global market expansion by FY26 | Investment target raised to $10.0B vs prior $9.5B Realty Income raised 2026 investment target to $10B and secured a €528M partner investment, reinforcing global expansion. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
O is a real estate income business with a relatively low-risk profile and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is mixed and the evidence spans only a few months.
O is valued at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is small and the valuation evidence is described as aligned. This suggests the current valuation already reflects a broadly supportive business outlook, rather than a clear disconnect between expectations and fundamentals.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, occupancy stayed near management’s goal, and investment volume guidance was raised. Execution is not uniformly proven: investment-volume progress is mixed, and the snapshot flags recent misses despite a low estimated miss risk.
A next-quarter guidance increase after the prior reduction would support the thesis, while rate cuts could help rate-sensitive real estate. The sector tailwind could weaken if major peers report missed results or softer guidance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining strong portfolio performance and turning management’s investment plans into consistent execution. The premium valuation and mixed execution make those results central to the multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Realty Income's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5 USD_BILLIONS. |
| Intact |
| investment volume falls below 6.0 USD_BILLIONS in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As a result, we are raising our 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.45–$4.46 while reaffirming our $10.0 billion investment volume target, which is supported by a well-funded balance sheet.”” “During the three months ended June 30, 2026, the new Annualized Base Rent on re-leased units was $110.3 million, as compared to the previous annual rent of $107.4 million on the same units, representing a rent recapture rate of 102.7% on the re-leased units.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Portfolio occupancy remains near 98.9% | Its portfolio occupancy stays high near 99%. | Intact | occupancy falls below 98.5% over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $1.68 · observed estimates
$6.11B → $6.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $6,110,439,312 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.71 | $6,211,411,710 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.74 | $6,110,463,038 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $6,340,472,300 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $6,340,472,300 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $6,340,472,300 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.76 | $6,110,765,108 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.70 | $6,078,928,317 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.70 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.70 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.70 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.70 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.70 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.69 | $6,098,058,957 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.69 | $6,099,433,076 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.69 | $6,099,433,076 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.69 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.69 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.69 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.69 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.69 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.70 | $6,030,552,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.70 | $6,037,302,499 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.69 | $6,037,302,499 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.69 | $6,030,260,496 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.69 | $6,030,337,419 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.69 | $6,024,948,870 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.68 | $6,024,948,870 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.68 | $5,961,438,677 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.67 | $5,962,092,313 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.67 | $5,997,019,620 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.67 | $5,997,019,620 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.68 | $5,993,603,453 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.68 | $5,993,587,602 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.68 | $5,993,587,602 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.68 | $5,993,587,602 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.68 | $5,993,587,602 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.68 | $6,030,934,768 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.68 | $6,016,645,171 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.