Realty Income (O)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.25-0.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · O
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
O — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-25
Other Events. On August 20, 2026, Realty Income Corporation (the “Company”) entered into (i) that certain Second Amendment to Amended and Restated Term Loan Agreement (the “Wells Fargo Term Loan Agreement Amendment”) which amends its Amended and Restated Term Loan Agreement, dated as of January 22, 2024, among the Company, as Borrower, the lenders party thereto, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent, and the other parties named therein (as amended, the “Wells Fargo T…
Why it matters: A higher debt ratio may show financial trouble. This can lower investor trust.
Worry ifNet debt is more than 5.4 times the annualized pro forma adjusted EBITDA.
Less concerning ifNet debt to annualized pro forma adjusted EBITDA is at or below 5.4x.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help get more capital and growth. This affects future investments.
Supportive ifA new private capital partnership is announced, worth more than $500 million.
Worry ifNo new private capital partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A raise in AFFO guidance would show strong earnings momentum and confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 AFFO per share guidance above $4.45.
Worry ifManagement keeps Q3 AFFO per share guidance at or below $4.44.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong growth. It also means good use of money, which helps long-term stability.
Supportive ifTotal investments in 2026 reach or exceed $9.5 billion.
Worry ifTotal investments in 2026 fall below $8 billion.
Why it matters: A large buyback could indicate strong cash flow and management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of share buybacks totaling more than $500 million.
Worry ifThere are no big buyback announcements or cuts in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: An increase shows better earnings growth. It also boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifAFFO per share guidance raised above $4.44.
Worry ifAFFO per share guidance remains at or below $4.41.
Why it matters: This confirms Realty Income is on track to meet its $9.5 billion investment goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 investment volume reported at $2.4 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ2 investment volume is below $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: A lower rent recapture rate may show problems in re-leasing properties. This can hurt revenue.
Worry ifRent recapture rate falls below 100% for two consecutive quarters.
Less concerning ifRent recapture rate remains at or above 100% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A smooth transition is key for good governance during this leadership change.
Watch forA new Chief Legal Officer will be appointed before September 2, 2026.
Also watch forThe transition is delayed or not settled by September 2, 2026.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback may show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of specific terms and amounts for the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo news or cancellation of the buyback program shows a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy may show less demand for leased properties. This can hurt revenue.
Worry ifOccupancy drops below 98.5% for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifPortfolio occupancy remains at or above 98.5% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in occupancy can show problems keeping tenants. This can hurt rental income.
Worry ifPortfolio occupancy is below 98.5%. This may mean problems with keeping tenants.
Less concerning ifOccupancy stays at or above 98.5%. This shows stability in keeping tenants.
Why it matters: New partnerships can help get more money and investment chances.
Supportive ifA new partnership or capital raise over $1 billion is announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships or capital raises announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this project would create more growth chances. It would also add new income sources.
Supportive ifThe joint venture is now complete and has started operations.
Worry ifDelay or cancellation of the joint venture.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show the company's financial health and performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive growth in AFFO and revenue.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a decline in AFFO or revenue.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $158 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,147 loss on $10,000 · 11.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.