Old Dominion (ODFL)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-07-08
$218.25+1.27%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track ODFL free→Old Dominion is a leading less-than-truckload shipper with wide service coverage. It has beaten earnings estimates in the last two quarters, with EPS of $1.14 and $1.09. Analysts expect about 9.7% revenue growth next year. The company pays a steady dividend near $0.28 per share.
Revenue has declined about 3% year over year recently, and net income fell about 6% in the latest quarter. Rising pricing amid Amazon threats could hurt competitiveness. The stock trades at a high PE of 45, well above peers.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $169 and 25% below the Street median target of $226. The market expects nearly 10% revenue growth, but recent revenue trends are negative. Our view is more cautious on growth and valuation.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $300 million without revenue growth
Breaks if: Significant loss of market share or forced price cuts
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.47 in FY26 or fails to grow next year
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on increasing shareholder value through strategic initiatives and disciplined execution.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net income decreased from $254,660,000 in 2025-Q1 to $238,258,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in increasing shareholder value. Despite management's confidence, the financials show a decline in net income, suggesting challenges in delivering on this priority.
“CEO: 'We remain confident that we are in a unique position to generate profitable revenue growth and increase shareholder value over the long term.'”
“CEO: 'We remain confident that we are in an unparalleled position within our industry to win market share, generate profitable revenue growth and increase shareholder value over the long term.'”
“CEO: 'Our consistent execution and investment in our network throughout the economic cycle puts Old Dominion in a unique position to capitalize on an improvement in demand when it materializes.'”
“CEO: 'We remain highly motivated to continue delivering superior service for our customers, while also maintaining our yield discipline and operating efficiently, which will support our ability to wi…”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year
Focus on generating profitable revenue growth and increasing shareholder value over the long term.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue decreased from $1,374,858,000 in 2025-Q1 to $1,334,696,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in achieving profitable revenue growth. Despite management's confidence, the financials show a decline in revenue, suggesting challenges in delivering on this priority.
“CEO: 'We remain confident that we are in a unique position to generate profitable revenue growth...'”
“CEO: 'We remain confident that we are in an unparalleled position within our industry to win market share, generate profitable revenue growth...'”
“CEO: 'We remain highly motivated to continue delivering superior service for our customers, while also maintaining our yield discipline and operating efficiently, which will support our ability to wi…”
“CEO: 'Our consistent execution and investment in our network throughout the economic cycle puts Old Dominion in a unique position to capitalize on an improvement in demand when it materializes.'”
“CEO: 'We remain confident in our ability to win market share over the long term, which will also help us produce profitable growth and increased shareholder value.'”
“CEO: 'We are confident that Old Dominion's unmatched value proposition makes us the best-positioned carrier to win market share once a positive inflection in industry demand occurs.'”