Oneok (OKE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-07-08
$91.14+0.52%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track OKE free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
OKE represents a stable investment in the energy sector, characterized by moderate risk and neutral fundamentals. The current thesis state is intact, with recent financial performance holding up well compared to peers.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of execution quality and a turbulent sector environment, suggesting a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers. There is a small expectations gap, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.
Management is focused on increasing adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance, with some progress noted in recent quarters. However, there are mixed results regarding capital expenditures, and the company has a moderate risk of missing earnings due to its history of consecutive misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like WMB, KMI, and ET. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable tailwind for OKE. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact OKE's momentum.
Overall, OKE's fundamentals are stable, but the company faces risks from sector dynamics and execution quality. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings report showed a miss. This miss raises concerns about the company's performance. There are no new strengths to support the thesis.
as of 2026-07-08
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will expand ONEOK's operations and cash flow. It could enhance market position.
Confirms:The acquisition will close as planned in Q3 2023. It has all regulatory approvals.
Disproves:The acquisition may face delays. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Changing EPS guidance shows how well the company controls costs and revenues.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps EPS guidance unchanged for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending shows a focus on growth and stability.
Confirms one read:Management confirms capital spending will stay in the planned range.
Confirms the other:Management says they will cut the capital spending range.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good spending and helps growth plans.
Confirms one read:Capital spending is reported within the $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion range.
Confirms the other:Capital spending is reported outside the $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion range.
Why it matters: Higher net income guidance shows strong business growth. It also shows better profits.
Confirms:Net income guidance for 2026 is raised above $3.79 billion.
Disproves:Net income guidance remains unchanged or is lowered.
Why it matters: How the money from the notes is used will affect ONEOK's debt and flexibility.
Confirms one read:ONEOK pays off all its commercial paper and senior notes due in September.
Confirms the other:ONEOK fails to repay the commercial paper or senior notes as planned.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that operations and market conditions are strong.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $800 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported below $700 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong performance. This helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 comes in at or above $2.0 billion.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA drops below $1.9 billion. This shows weaker performance.