Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Oneok (OKE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
$86.25-2.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.18 → 6.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OKE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $8.5 billion in 2026 | Oneok aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $8.5 billion in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.0 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) guidance increased to a range of $8.5 billion to $8.6 billion.” “Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) guidance increased to a range of $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OKE is an integrated energy infrastructure business with a multi-year growth thesis tied to volumes, earnings, and growth projects. The thesis is currently intact: recent performance remains in the top half of its industry, and management has raised its 2026 earnings guidance more than once.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to OKE being cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium to peers. The expectations gap is small, and the priced-in assessment says current expectations are justified rather than especially fragile.
Near term, recent results show progress: third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, throughput volumes rose 6%, and natural gas pipelines earnings increased year over year. Management raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, but higher capital spending and mixed project execution keep delivery in focus; the estimated risk of a near-term miss is low, though earnings surprises in the industry are trending down.
The multi-year thesis depends on OKE continuing to grow earnings through integrated operations and higher volumes while completing growth projects and expanding system connections. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage confidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers ENB, WMB, and KMI would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OKE’s long-term thesis has support from operating growth and improved guidance, but project execution, spending, and the sector backdrop remain important swing factors. The valuation signals are mixed, so the expectations embedded in the shares are not clearly one-sided. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Capital expenditure remains between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion in 2026 | It plans capital spending between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion. | Intact | Capital expenditure exceeds $3.2 billion or falls below $2.7 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $937M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 2.7 to 3.2 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026937,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Earnings per share reach $5.53 in 2026 | Earnings per share guidance is raised to $5.53. | Intact | EPS falls below $5.53 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.13 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.53 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20262.13 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.22 → $6.09 · observed estimates
$37.42B → $43.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.22 | $37,419,686,077 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.22 | $37,419,686,077 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.10 | $37,611,157,810 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.09 | $37,610,923,510 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.21 | $37,419,425,743 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.09 | $37,610,923,510 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.21 | $37,176,055,587 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.15 | $37,391,890,370 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.21 | $37,176,055,587 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.16 | $37,391,890,370 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.21 | $37,176,055,587 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.20 | $37,176,055,587 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.20 | $37,391,890,370 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.20 | $37,391,890,370 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.24 | $39,619,145,270 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.24 | $39,619,145,270 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.23 | $39,619,145,270 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.24 | $39,603,124,343 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.22 | $40,186,482,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.23 | $40,186,482,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.23 | $40,186,482,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.23 | $40,186,482,221 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.24 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.23 | $40,261,101,472 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.21 | $40,365,157,428 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.21 | $40,365,157,428 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.19 | $40,707,157,428 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.20 | $40,707,157,428 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.20 | $40,707,157,428 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.20 | $40,707,157,428 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.20 | $40,707,157,428 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.16 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.16 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.14 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.13 | $40,770,994,462 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.18 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.18 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.18 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.18 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.18 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.16 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.16 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.16 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.16 | $41,060,382,832 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.15 | $41,060,382,832 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.15 | $41,060,382,832 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.15 | $41,060,382,832 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.14 | $41,507,398,034 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.12 | $41,650,953,589 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.16 | $41,873,094,367 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.16 | $41,873,094,367 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.18 | $41,873,094,367 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.18 | $41,873,094,367 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.18 | $41,873,094,367 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.17 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.18 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.17 | $41,966,794,812 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.15 | $41,983,584,367 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.13 | $41,983,584,367 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.14 | $41,889,476,589 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.14 | $41,889,476,589 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.14 | $41,889,476,589 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.10 | $42,263,365,478 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.09 | $43,349,850,867 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.09 | $43,349,850,867 | 13 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.