Oneok (OKE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$95.43-0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Oneok aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $8.5 billion in 2026. It plans capital spending between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion. Earnings per share guidance is raised to $5.53. The company has a stable profit margin and moderate valuation compared to peers.
Oneok recently missed earnings and cut guidance, signaling risks to growth. Revenue growth is expected to slow to about 5%. Capital spending and earnings targets may be pressured by market headwinds. The sector faces challenges that could hurt margins.
The market expects about 5% revenue growth and prices the stock roughly 15% above our valuation model's midpoint. Our model is below the Street's median estimate by about 14%. The market has priced in moderate growth but recent guidance cuts raise uncertainty.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Capital expenditure exceeds $3.2 billion or falls below $2.7 billion in FY26
EPS falls below $5.53 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong relative to its industry peers.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with OKE appearing cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market does not fully account for potential upside from management's execution and sector dynamics.
Management is on track with increasing adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance, reflecting operational improvements. However, capital expenditure management is mixed, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, as any reversal could harm credibility. Additionally, sector performance and inflation trends will play a crucial role in shaping OKE's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on OKE. However, funding a $4.4 billion acquisition may challenge capital expenditure management.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, OKE is positioned well within its sector, but execution risks remain. Not investment advice.