Oneok (OKE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$95.43-0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
OKE — capital allocation
Dated 2026-08-31
The issuance of the Class A Units to ONEOK and the Class B Units to Investor will be made in reliance upon the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided by Section 4(a)(2) thereof as a transaction by an issuer not involving any public offering.
Why it matters: Higher throughput volumes show strong demand. This means better efficiency and affects earnings.
Watch forNGL raw feed throughput volumes increase by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Also watch forNGL raw feed throughput volumes decline by more than 5% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would improve ONEOK's market position and financial strength.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes as planned in Q3 2023.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending shows a focus on growth and stability.
Watch forManagement confirms capital spending will stay in the planned range.
Also watch forManagement says they will cut the capital spending range.
Why it matters: Finishing these projects could increase capacity and market position. This may boost future earnings.
Supportive ifThe Denver pipeline expansion is completed. The Permian Basin processing plant is moved.
Worry ifDelays in the completion of these strategic growth projects.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,186 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows smart spending and helps growth projects.
Watch forCapital spending is about $2.7 billion or more.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $2.7 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion shows ONEOK's focus on growth.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, capital spending matches guidance. This shows good capital management.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, capital spending is over $3.2 billion. This raises worries about overspending.
Why it matters: A strong Q2 EBITDA would confirm ongoing growth and support the increased guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is more than $2.0 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA is less than $1.9 billion.
Why it matters: Higher net income guidance shows strong business growth. It also shows better profits.
Supportive ifNet income guidance for 2026 is raised above $3.79 billion.
Worry ifNet income guidance remains unchanged or is lowered.
Why it matters: How the money from the notes is used will affect ONEOK's debt and flexibility.
Watch forONEOK pays off all its commercial paper and senior notes due in September.
Also watch forONEOK fails to repay the commercial paper or senior notes as planned.
Why it matters: Higher EPS shows strong earnings and supports the increased EPS guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported above $1.23.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS falls below $1.15.
Why it matters: The merger is expected to create significant synergies and improve cash flow. This will impact ONEOK's growth outlook.
Supportive ifThe merger will close by September 2026. Expected savings are at least $200 million each year.
Worry ifMerger delays beyond Q3 2026 or fails to secure necessary approvals.
Why it matters: ONEOK has raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance. More increases show strong performance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now above $8.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifGuidance remains unchanged or lowered from the current range of $8.0 billion to $8.5 billion.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good cost management and revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $850 million, showing over 10% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $850 million, showing slower growth.
Why it matters: This change could greatly impact ONEOK's money management and growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares how the $9 billion will be used for growth.
Worry ifNo updates or bad news about the cash contribution from Holdings.