O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$87.89+0.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 44.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 82.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
ORLY — officer change
Dated 2026-05-18
The filing details a stock option award and routine board elections.
Why it matters: This would signal trouble in meeting the 2026 revenue target. It could show a slowdown in demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Capital spending shows how much O'Reilly invests in growth. Changes can show confidence or worry.
Watch forCapital spending stays between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending falls below $1.3 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Management's guidance on store sales growth shows market demand and how well the company is doing.
Watch forManagement expects store sales growth to be between 3.0% and 5.0% for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers store sales growth guidance to below 3.0% for 2026.
Why it matters: New store openings show O'Reilly's growth strategy. More stores can lead to higher sales.
Supportive ifO'Reilly opens 225 to 235 net new stores by year-end 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 225 net new stores opened by year-end 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,327 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Aggressive buybacks can signal strong cash flow and management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $2 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $2 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share. This shows O'Reilly's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifO'Reilly buys back over $1 billion in shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $500 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning value to shareholders. It reflects the company's financial health.
Watch forFree cash flow for 2026 exceeds $2.1 billion, indicating strong cash generation.
Also watch forFree cash flow for 2026 falls below $1.8 billion, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show that management trusts the stock. This could help the share price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of over $500 million in the next year.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks were announced for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Falling below this target may show cash problems that hurt growth plans.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1.8 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $2.1 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Stable margins are important. They help keep profits up when costs rise.
Supportive ifOperating margin guidance for 2026 remains within the range of 19.2% to 19.7%.
Worry ifThe operating margin forecast for 2026 is lower now.
Why it matters: This growth shows how well O'Reilly is attracting customers. It impacts future sales and profits.
Supportive ifComparable store sales growth exceeds 6% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifComparable store sales growth falls below 4% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in sales growth, which could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifComparable store sales growth reported below 4% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifComparable store sales growth reported above 6% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Fewer openings may mean weaker plans for growth. This could lead to less market share.
Worry ifNet new store openings reported below 225 for 2026.
Less concerning ifNet new store openings reported at or above 235 for 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown may mean less money returned to shareholders. This can change how investors feel.
Worry ifShare repurchases reported below $1 billion in the second half of 2026.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases reported at or above $1.5 billion in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Lower growth may show less profit. This can change how the market sees the company.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share growth reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted earnings per share growth reported at or above 15%.