O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$86.65+2.86%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.65. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 ORLY trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median, and our $82 fair value agrees. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $108–$115. Note: our $82 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($108–$115). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $96 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$108.00 – $115.00 (median $110.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 36% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.3 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.38/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $35.21 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $28.91 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $74.13 | 23.2 | 3.20 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $58.26 | 13.9 | 4.73 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $44.27 | 19.5 | 2.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $70.89 | 23.2 | 3.06 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $45.06 | 2.1 | 21.61 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $155.31 | 50.8 | 3.06 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $110.88 | 36.2 | 3.06 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $71.90 | 23.2 | 3.10 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $104.03 | 23.2 | 4.49 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $34.02 | 19.5 | 1.75 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $88.55 | 23.2 | 3.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $52.94 | 2.1 | 25.39 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $194.01 | 50.8 | 3.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $138.51 | 36.2 | 3.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $130.39 | 23.2 | 5.63 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $28.55 | 19.5 | 1.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $94.93 | 23.2 | 4.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $56.76 | 2.1 | 27.22 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $207.99 | 50.8 | 4.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $148.49 | 36.2 | 4.10 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.