Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.22+0.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.67 → 4.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PEG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to about $4.34 in 2026 | PSEG grows earnings to about $4.34 per share in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $4.0 in 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.76 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~4.34 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 2, 20260.76 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “PSEG Third Quarter 2026 PSEG EPS Reconciliation – YTD Results $4.00 $3.59 $3.56 $0.16 $3.60 $0.07 $3.33 Gross Margin 0.13 Transmission: 0.03 $3.20 O&M 0.08 $2.91 Distribution: Depreciation & Interest $2.80 Margin 0.14 (0.03) O&M (0.03) Taxes & Other (0.02) $2.40 Depreciation & Interest (0.06) $2.00 Taxes & Other (0.01) $1.60 $1.20 $0.80 $0.40 $0.00 YTD 2025 YTD 2025 PSE&G PSEG Power & Other YTD 2026 YTD 2026 Net Income Operating Earnings Operating Earnings Net Income (non-GAAP) (non-GAAP) See Slides A and B for Items excluded from Net Income/(Loss) to reconcile to Operating Earnings (non-GAAP).” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PEG is a regulated utility with a measured growth profile, supported by planned infrastructure spending and nuclear output hedging. Its long-term thesis is mildly favorable, but the current state is watch because recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and earnings quality is rated fragile.
PEG is valued at a small premium to peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and the valuation is described as cheap. The evidence says pricing is broadly justified, with low fragility; it does not point to unusually high expectations already embedded in the shares.
Over the multi-year view, management targets 6%-8% annual growth in non-GAAP operating earnings through 2030, and 2026 guidance remains reaffirmed after two recent earnings beats. The 2026 regulated investment plan is on track overall, though execution is mixed; near term, the main risk is a guidance cut, with recent peer misses and past company misses worth watching.
The thesis depends on management sustaining its earnings-growth outlook and completing regulated investments while maintaining strong operations. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support utility-sector momentum.
For the next 1-3 years, PEG has a credible regulated-growth plan and stable management, but fragile earnings quality and performance below peers temper the thesis. The next guidance update and delivery on the investment plan are key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
No major leadership disruptions | A supporting condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or executive departures. | Intact | Significant insider selling or key executive retirements | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $3.85B in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $3.85B. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 1% annually | Revenue: $3.02B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $3.85B. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20263,020,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “PSEG Third Quarter 2026 PSEG EPS Reconciliation – YTD Results $4.00 $3.59 $3.56 $0.16 $3.60 $0.07 $3.33 Gross Margin 0.13 Transmission: 0.03 $3.20 O&M 0.08 $2.91 Distribution: Depreciation & Interest $2.80 Margin 0.14 (0.03) O&M (0.03) Taxes & Other (0.02) $2.40 Depreciation & Interest (0.06) $2.00 Taxes & Other (0.01) $1.60 $1.20 $0.80 $0.40 $0.00 YTD 2025 YTD 2025 PSE&G PSEG Power & Other YTD 2026 YTD 2026 Net Income Operating Earnings Operating Earnings Net Income (non-GAAP) (non-GAAP) See Slides A and B for Items excluded from Net Income/(Loss) to reconcile to Operating Earnings (non-GAAP).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain P/E below peer median of 24.44 | A supporting condition in Public Service Enterprise Group's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 20. | Intact | P/E rises above 24.44 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 17.11x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202617.1075 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.69 → $4.64 · observed estimates
$13.06B → $13.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.69 | $13,057,414,330 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.68 | $13,091,144,480 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.68 | $13,088,956,980 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.68 | $13,088,956,980 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.68 | $13,088,956,980 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.68 | $12,994,193,901 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.68 | $13,088,956,980 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.68 | $13,088,956,980 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.68 | $12,994,204,151 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.68 | $13,092,551,700 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.68 | $13,092,551,700 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.68 | $12,998,302,148 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.67 | $13,075,172,315 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.67 | $13,076,314,592 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.67 | $13,076,278,528 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.67 | $13,082,513,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.67 | $13,081,656,113 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.67 | $13,081,656,113 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.67 | $13,081,656,113 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.66 | $13,081,656,113 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.66 | $13,076,213,256 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.66 | $13,076,070,399 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.66 | $13,076,070,399 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.66 | $13,076,070,399 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.66 | $13,076,070,399 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.66 | $13,076,070,399 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.65 | $13,039,190,030 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.65 | $13,039,277,921 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.65 | $13,026,218,089 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.64 | $13,023,928,720 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.64 | $13,023,928,720 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.65 | $13,010,923,629 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.65 | $13,010,923,629 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.65 | $13,010,923,629 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.64 | $13,216,885,491 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.64 | $13,216,885,491 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.64 | $13,216,885,491 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.64 | $13,287,877,312 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.64 | $13,287,854,083 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.64 | $13,287,854,083 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.64 | $13,254,109,370 | 13 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.64 | $13,254,109,706 | 13 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.