Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Penn Entertainment (PENN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.34-0.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.52 → 1.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PENN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce traditional net leverage by more than 2 turns | The company aims to reduce its debt by more than two turns. | Intact | net leverage reduction is less than 2 turns over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Jay Snowden, Chief Executive Officer and President, said: “We continued to execute against our 2026 strategic priorities this quarter: delivering Segment Adjusted EBITDAR growth, optimizing corporate overhead, growing cash flow, and deleveraging the balance sheet.” “Given this outlook, we expect to de-lever year-over-year, reducing lease adjusted net leverage by more than 1 turn and traditional net leverage by more than 2 turns and opportunistically return capital to shareholders.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an elevated-risk, loss-making business with a mixed growth and turnaround profile. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on debt reduction and retail projects, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation model shows PENN at a 2.5% premium to peers, with low confidence and an expectations gap of -0.09. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and flags low fragility, but the evidence does not specify exactly what operational assumptions the market has already priced in.
Near term, erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses create some risk, although the stated miss probability is low. Over the multi-year view, leverage has improved and the retail projects opened on schedule, while Interactive losses narrowed slightly from the first to the second quarter; company momentum and composite insight have weakened recently.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor, since a cut could weigh on the business outlook and lead estimates lower. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on sustained debt reduction, retail growth, and whether the Alberta launch helps Interactive progress toward profitability; sector peers’ results may signal whether the broader tailwind strengthens or fades.
PENN’s 1-to-3-year setup combines tangible execution progress with losses, elevated risk, and weaker recent momentum. The thesis remains watchful and depends on continued operating progress and guidance stability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve earnings per share to at least $0.89 in FY26 | A primary condition in Penn Entertainment's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.89. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $0.89 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 5.6% revenue growth next year | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 6% next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.6% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.46 → $1.49 · observed estimates
$7.68B → $7.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.46 | $7,680,396,060 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.49 | $7,713,281,850 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $7,713,281,850 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $7,713,281,850 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.49 | $7,713,281,850 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.62 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.53 | $7,713,548,900 | 5 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.45 | $7,725,050,320 | 6 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.63 | $7,707,367,163 | 7 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.47 | $7,724,022,913 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.47 | $7,724,021,948 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.47 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.52 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.52 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.52 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.52 | $7,726,080,771 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $7,729,010,183 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.52 | $7,728,083,713 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.52 | $7,728,083,713 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.52 | $7,728,083,713 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.54 | $7,728,083,713 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.54 | $7,728,083,713 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.54 | $7,729,137,945 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.47 | $7,727,530,474 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.48 | $7,726,571,624 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.49 | $7,727,148,094 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.49 | $7,726,037,572 | 8 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.