Penn Entertainment (PENN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.07-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PENN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PENN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, PENN Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of May 3, 2022 (as amended prior to the effectiveness of the Amendment, the “Existing Credit Agreement” and as further amended by the Amendment, the “Amended Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, the guarantors party thereto, the lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A, as…
Why it matters: The Alberta launch can expand market presence. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifOfficial launch announcement in Alberta within the next three months.
Worry ifFurther delays or lack of updates on the Alberta launch.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth in Retail shows strong consumer demand and good execution.
Supportive ifRetail revenue is over $1.5 billion for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifRetail segment revenue falls below $1.5 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New hotels can bring more visitors and spending. This helps increase total revenue.
Supportive ifRevenue from new hotel openings exceeds $10 million in the first quarter post-launch.
Worry ifRevenue from new hotel openings is less than $5 million in the first quarter post-launch.
Why it matters: The launch is key for growth in the Interactive segment. Success here could boost overall revenue.
Supportive ifUser engagement and revenue grew in the first month after launch.
Worry ifWeak user engagement and revenue fails to meet initial projections in the first month.
Why it matters: Lower leverage shows better financial health and more chances to invest.
Supportive ifTraditional net leverage falls below 2.9x in the next quarter.
Worry ifTraditional net leverage goes back above 2.9x.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA shows better cost control. It also means the company runs more efficiently.
Supportive ifIn Q2, adjusted EBITDA was over $300 million.
Worry ifIn Q2, adjusted EBITDA was under $250 million.
Why it matters: A successful launch shows growth in the Interactive segment and market growth.
Supportive ifPositive revenue growth comes from the Alberta launch in the first quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from the Alberta launch does not meet early expectations in the first quarter.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key for financial stability. It helps PENN invest and grow.
Supportive ifNet leverage improves to below 2.5x.
Worry ifNet leverage stays above 3.0x.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key for financial health. Investors want to see real progress.
Supportive ifManagement reports a decrease in total debt by at least 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal debt remains unchanged or increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cutting debt helps improve financial stability. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifNet debt reduction reported by more than 1 turn by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant reduction in net debt reported by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the Retail segment is important for PENN's performance. Strong revenue shows they are executing their growth plan well.
Supportive ifQ3 Retail segment revenue grows year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 Retail segment revenue growth is flat or negative year over year.
Why it matters: Cutting debt is important. It can make finances more stable.
Supportive ifDebt levels decrease by more than 10% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifDebt levels remain unchanged or increase in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Opening these projects on time would confirm management's growth strategy. It could lead to higher revenues.
Supportive ifBoth retail growth projects open by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifOne or both retail growth projects are delayed past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth target shows management's trust in retail performance and cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAR growth of 20% or more reported for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAR growth is less than 10% compared to last year for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lowering debt is important for financial health. It shows better stability.
Supportive ifManagement says lease adjusted net leverage is down by more than 1 turn.
Worry ifNo progress reported, or an increase in leverage metrics.
Why it matters: Strong performance from new projects can drive revenue growth and support management's goals. This is key for the retail segment.
Supportive ifBoth new projects report revenue growth of at least 10% in their first quarter of operation.
Worry ifBoth new projects report revenue declines in their first quarter of operation.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts PENN's retail segment performance. Strong spending supports revenue growth.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 2% year over year.
Also watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales decline year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $476 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,255 loss on $10,000 · 42.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.