PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-07-07
$144.98+1.18%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track PEP free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
PepsiCo grows organic revenue about 2-4% yearly. Core EPS rises 4-6% annually. The company plans to return $8.9 billion to shareholders in 2026. Capital spending stays below 5% of net revenue.
Growth remains at the low end of targets, with organic revenue only 2.6% in Q1. Regulatory issues and recalls may hurt sales and brand. New competitors and activist investor pressure could disrupt strategy.
The price is about 10% above our fair value near $131, reflecting roughly 4.5% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 19% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus bullish Street views.
Breaks if: capex exceeds 5% of net revenue in FY26
PepsiCo aims to keep capital spending below 5% of net revenue for fiscal 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS growth falls below 4% in FY26
PepsiCo targets core constant currency EPS growth between 4% and 6% for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core constant currency EPS increased 5% in 2026-Q1, within the 4-6% target range. The trajectory is delivering as planned, with EPS growth aligning with expectations.
“Core constant currency EPS increased 5%.”
“Core constant currency EPS to increase between 4 and 6 percent.”
“Core constant currency EPS to be approximately even with the prior year.”
“Core constant currency EPS to be approximately even with the prior year.”
Breaks if: organic revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
PepsiCo aims to achieve organic revenue growth between 2% and 4% for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Organic revenue increased 2.6% in 2026-Q1, aligning with the lower end of the 2-4% target. Despite consistent emphasis, growth remains at the lower bound, indicating limited progress towards the upper target.
“Organic revenue increased 2.6%.”
“Organic revenue to increase between 2 and 4 percent.”
“Low-single-digit organic revenue growth.”
“Low-single-digit organic revenue growth.”
Breaks if: shareholder returns fall materially below $8.9 billion in FY26
PepsiCo plans to return approximately $8.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2026.