Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$237.25+1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PKG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
PKG — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-03
Director — Paul T. Stecko: Paul T. Stecko is retiring from the Board and will not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting.
Why it matters: Sector growth impacts demand for packaging. It can affect revenue and margins.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up above 1% in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is now below 1%.
Why it matters: Changes in these costs can affect profits and income in packaging.
Worry ifFreight and recycled fiber costs stabilize or drop from high levels.
Less concerning ifFreight and recycled fiber costs keep rising, hurting margins.
Why it matters: Higher prices can boost profits in the Paper segment.
Supportive ifRaising paper prices improves margins in Q2.
Worry ifMargins in the Paper segment decline or stay flat despite price increases.
Why it matters: High freight costs can hurt margins and overall profits.
Worry ifFreight costs remain at or around elevated levels experienced in May and June.
Less concerning ifFreight costs drop a lot from current high levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $274 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,721 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow supports investments and dividends. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is better than last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is worse than last quarter.
Why it matters: Higher maintenance costs can hurt profits and reduce production.
Worry ifMaintenance costs rise a lot in Q2 compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifMaintenance costs stay the same or drop in Q2.
Why it matters: Shipment trends show demand and how well the company operates.
Watch forShipments of corrugated products are up year over year, showing strong demand.
Also watch forShipments of corrugated products are down year over year, showing weak demand.
Why it matters: Better operations can help make more money. They can also ease cost pressures.
Supportive ifManagement says there are big improvements at the Greif mills soon.
Worry ifThere are ongoing challenges or losses from the Greif acquisition.
Why it matters: Growth in shipments signals strong demand and operational efficiency. It is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal corrugated product shipments increase by at least 5% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal corrugated product shipments decline or remain flat in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding operations and investments. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $329 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $329 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows good cost management. This shows the company's strength.
Supportive ifOperating income, without special items, stays stable or goes up from past quarters.
Worry ifOperating income drops a lot, showing trouble in managing costs.
Why it matters: More earnings from Greif means it is integrating well. This leads to better operations.
Supportive ifGreif operations contribute more than $0.14 per share in EPS for Q3.
Worry ifGreif operations contribute less than $0.14 per share in EPS for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher containerboard prices would help offset rising costs and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifContainerboard prices rise as expected in Q3, which helps revenue.
Worry ifIf containerboard prices do not rise as expected, it will hurt revenue.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings. It helps calm investors.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance is the same during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered or revised downward in the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Strong production helps revenue grow. It shows the company is working well.
Supportive ifContainerboard production remains at or above 1,398,000 tons in Q2.
Worry ifContainerboard production falls below 1,398,000 tons in Q2.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS guidance shows strong results. This helps keep investor trust.
Supportive ifReported EPS for Q3 is $2.91 or higher, excluding special items.
Worry ifReported EPS for Q3 is below $2.91, excluding special items.