Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$259.17+1.66%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PKG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PKG — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-03
Director — Paul T. Stecko: Paul T. Stecko is retiring from the Board and will not stand for reelection at the 2026 Annual Meeting.
Why it matters: The sector data says Materials revenue has been shrinking. A move above zero would mark a change in that trend.
Supportive ifThe Materials sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive.
Worry ifThe Materials sector's three-year revenue growth remains at or below zero.
Why it matters: Freight and recycled fiber costs already cut into recent results. Further increases could offset higher prices and hurt earnings.
Worry ifQ4 freight or recycled fiber costs rise above Q3 levels and adjusted EPS falls below $2.81.
Less concerning ifQ4 freight and recycled fiber costs stay at or below Q3 levels, while adjusted EPS is at least $2.81.
Why it matters: Greif moved from a loss to a profit year over year in Q3. More gains would show that better mill work is lasting.
Supportive ifGreif operations add more than $0.13 per share in Q4, versus $0.13 in Q3.
Worry ifGreif operations add less than $0.13 per share, or report a loss.
Why it matters: Management expects shipments per day near last year's Q4 level and total shipments above Q3. This tests demand and supply plans.
Watch forQ4 shipments per day are at or above Q4 2025, and total shipments exceed Q3 2026.
Also watch forQ4 shipments per day fall below Q4 2025, or total shipments do not exceed Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $263 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,721 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Three mill outages will cut production, and management expects much higher outage costs. A larger hit could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifQ4 mill outage costs, including lost production, are higher than Q3 and reduce adjusted EPS below $2.81.
Less concerning ifQ4 outage costs are not significantly higher than Q3, and adjusted EPS is at least $2.81.
Why it matters: Management set $2.81 as its Q4 earnings guide. A higher result would beat that mark despite planned outages and rising costs.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EPS is above $2.81.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EPS is below $2.81.