PKG
Packaging Corporation of AmericaNYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, PKG has a composite score of 18.7, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is driven by a high confidence level of 84.7 and reflects factors such as macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. Key drivers include macro growth, inflation, labor, and rates, with a moderate risk label and a fair valuation score of 67.6.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.75 → $2.35 (-14.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $2.07 | $2.20 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $2.45 | $2.65 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | $2.47 | $2.45 | inside |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.21 | $2.31 | inside |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.41 | $2.48 | inside |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.80 | $2.73 | inside |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.40 | $2.32 | inside |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.20 | $2.40 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 33%; 252d 26%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −17%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 56/100, drawdown 66/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 3.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | +19 | fair | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit described below, shall not be deemed “filed” hereunder for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On April 22, 2026, Packaging C…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-03-032mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 25, 2026, Paul T. Stecko informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Packaging Corporation of America (“PCA”) that he has decided to retire from service on the Board and will not stand for reelection to the Board at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Stecko’s decision to retire from the Board is…
executive changeneutralscore 17 - 2025-09-028mo agoItem 1.01
of PCA’s Current Report on Form 8-K dated August 6, 2025, which is incorporated herein by reference. A description of the senior note offering was included in
capital allocationneutralscore 0 - 2025-09-028mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The disclosure under
capital allocationnegativescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.