Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$224.53-3.39%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $224.53. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $232 PKG trades at 23× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median, but our blended $207 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $232–$267. Note: our $207 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($232–$267). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $274 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $253.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $110.64 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $82.43 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $50.15 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$232.00 – $267.00 (median $253.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 27% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.6 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $9.54/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $107.26 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $247.01 | 13.9 | 20.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $243.42 | 30.9 | 7.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $244.51 | 23.0 | 10.65 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $209.55 | 2.0 | 103.44 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $285.40 | 26.8 | 10.65 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $72.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $235.74 | 22.1 | 10.65 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $233.12 | 23.0 | 10.15 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $235.21 | 30.9 | 7.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $323.36 | 23.0 | 14.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $274.31 | 2.0 | 135.40 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $377.43 | 26.8 | 14.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $311.75 | 22.1 | 14.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $229.89 | 30.9 | 7.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $385.47 | 23.0 | 16.79 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $326.99 | 2.0 | 161.41 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $449.92 | 26.8 | 16.79 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $371.63 | 22.1 | 16.79 | Analyst | high |