Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$237.25+1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain operating income near or above $251.3M in 2026-Q1: EPS 2.35 vs 2.33 target.
Packaging Corp grows revenue about 9% yearly. EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share. Operating income rose to $251.3M in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations remains strong at $329.3M despite some decline.
EPS guidance is soft at $2.33 for 2026-Q2. Cash from operations dropped $117M from prior quarter. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins and growth.
The price is about 12% above our fair value near $207. Analysts expect 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is 18% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $329M in any quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.33 per share in 2026-Q2
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining earnings stability and operational improvements. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's consistent guidance.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation with a slight expectations gap. PKG is trading at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting confidence in its earnings trajectory and management execution.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management on track to meet earnings guidance despite cost pressures. Recent financial results have shown resilience, although there is a history of misses that could pose a near-term risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain earnings guidance and successfully integrate the Greif acquisition. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial for future momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the view on stability. However, cost pressures could impact operating income stability.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to meet or exceed EPS guidance as a key financial target.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $168.5M (2025-Q4 level) in any quarter
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Overall, PKG's setup appears solid for the next 1 to 3 years, contingent on effective management and favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.