Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$248.80-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.63 → 14.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PKG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain cash from operations near $329.3M per quarter | Cash from operations remains strong at $329.3M despite some decline. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $329M in any quarter | Cash from operations: $376M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=329 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026376,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PKG is an established packaging business with a strong recent operating record and a sector backdrop described as a tailwind. This is a relatively steady, execution-led long-term thesis, not a turnaround, but the current thesis depends on continued operating progress and remains intact.
Valuation is stretched, with PKG at a 1.55 premium to peers and an expectations gap of 0.21; the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence points to a re-rating as a driver, so the market appears to be crediting the improved momentum, though the snapshot does not specify exactly what earnings expectations are already assumed.
Near term, recent results are strong: third-quarter earnings excluding special items exceeded guidance, and operating income was higher than a year earlier. Acquired Greif operations also moved from a loss to positive earnings, though cost pressures remain and integration progress is mixed. The next guidance update is a key near-term risk, with industry peers’ recent misses also worth watching.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on PKG continuing to improve acquired mill operations and manage freight, recycled fiber, chemical, and labor costs. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector tailwind. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, with improving company momentum and recent execution balanced against stretched valuation and ongoing cost and integration risks. The main test is whether operating progress continues without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| EPS guidance for 2026-Q2 is $2.33 per share. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $2.33 per share in 2026-Q2 |
Diluted EPS: $2.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.33 USD per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 7, 20262.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income near or above $251.3M in 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose to $251.3M in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $168.5M (2025-Q4 level) in any quarter | Operating income: $291.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=251.3 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026291,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 9% annually | A primary condition in Packaging Corporation of America's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.62 → $14.46 · observed estimates
$10.62B → $11.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.62 | $10,624,351,700 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.58 | $10,616,344,100 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.58 | $10,616,344,100 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.58 | $10,612,594,100 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.58 | $10,612,594,100 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.63 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.63 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.68 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.68 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.68 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.68 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.68 | $10,683,771,660 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.13 | $10,692,820,858 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.39 | $10,783,027,901 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.58 | $10,833,890,412 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.58 | $10,833,890,412 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.58 | $10,833,890,412 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.58 | $10,833,891,323 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.61 | $10,846,485,977 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.63 | $10,854,859,120 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.63 | $10,854,859,120 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.63 | $10,860,253,024 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.75 | $10,884,519,691 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.88 | $10,901,656,238 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.11 | $10,932,528,010 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.00 | $10,932,529,191 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.14 | $11,011,001,882 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.14 | $11,011,001,882 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.21 | $11,041,696,663 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.46 | $11,007,722,263 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.46 | $11,007,722,263 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.46 | $11,009,545,044 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.46 | $11,009,545,044 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.46 | $11,009,597,263 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.