Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.52-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Pinnacle West Capital keeps steady earnings with EPS guidance near $4.65 for 2026. It plans big investments in gas generation and transmission to support growth. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. The company trades below peer P/E, offering value.
EPS guidance has softened from prior years, showing some pressure. Investment plans may strain capital allocation. Free cash flow yield is negative, raising concerns about cash generation.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $100 and 5% below the Street median target. The market expects roughly 6% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus but leaves limited upside.
Breaks if: Investment in gas generation falls significantly short of 2 GW target
Breaks if: Transmission investment falls below $6 billion
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on stable management and earnings quality. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent earnings misses, despite improvements in company quality and confidence levels.
The market seems to price PNW as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current turbulent sector conditions, indicating that the stock is not overly expensive despite recent weaknesses.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to recent earnings misses, but management's commitment to maintaining EPS guidance and investing in new generation capacity suggests potential for recovery. The low miss probability indicates some stability, but the company has a history of consecutive earnings misses.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. Recent financial performance remains weak compared to industry peers. The sector backdrop is also a drag, working against the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.55 for FY26
Continue to target consolidated earnings within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently maintained EPS guidance for 2026 within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share. Actual diluted EPS was $1.43 in 2026-Q2 and $0.27 in 2026-Q1, supporting the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management has reiterated this guidance consistently.
“For 2026, the Company continues to estimate its consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
“For 2026, the Company continues to estimate its consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
“the Company estimates its 2026 consolidated earnings will be within a range of $4.55 to $4.75 per diluted share on a weather-normalized basis.”
Breaks if: Long-term EPS growth falls below 5% annually
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain EPS guidance, the impact of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the performance of sector peers like NEE, SO, and DUK. Any cuts in guidance could negatively affect sentiment.
In the next 1 to 3 years, PNW's performance will depend on management execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.