Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.52-0.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PNW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PNW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
On August 4, 2026, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (“Pinnacle West”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Utilities sector growth impacts PNW's performance. A rebound could signal better times ahead.
Supportive ifUtilities sector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 3%.
Why it matters: Higher customer growth indicates strong demand and supports revenue stability. It is crucial for long-term growth.
Supportive ifReported customer growth exceeds 2.1% in Q3.
Worry ifCustomer growth falls below 2.1% in Q3.
Why it matters: If utility sector revenue growth speeds up, it could boost Pinnacle West's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in rules can affect cost recovery and profits.
Worry ifGood updates that help with timely rate recovery.
Less concerning ifBad changes that delay or lower rate recovery.
Why it matters: This project is important for meeting Arizona's energy needs. It helps future earnings.
Supportive ifLook for news about approvals or the start of the 380 MW project.
Worry ifWatch for delays or cancellations of gas projects due to rules or money issues.
Why it matters: A second earnings beat would boost investor trust in the company.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows results that beat analyst expectations by at least 5%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance shows the company is on track despite recent earnings miss. This is important for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows EPS within the range of $4.55 to $4.75.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows EPS below $4.55.
Why it matters: Investing in new gas generation is important for meeting energy needs in Arizona. Delays may hurt future growth.
Supportive ifLook for news about how much money or when the new gas project will start.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the gas project timeline.
Why it matters: The $6 billion investment in transmission expansion is important for growth and reliability. Progress is key for future work.
Supportive ifWatch for news on projects or spending for the $6 billion transmission expansion.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the planned transmission expansion projects.
Why it matters: Customer growth is a key indicator of demand and company health. A slowdown could signal broader economic issues.
Watch forCustomer growth rate exceeds 2.1% in the next quarter.
Also watch forCustomer growth rate falls below 2.1% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $173 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,098 loss on $10,000 · 11.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.