Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$105.57-2.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PNW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PNW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
On August 4, 2026, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (“Pinnacle West”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: APS reported 5.6% weather-normalized sales growth in Q2. The investor deck sets 4%–6% growth for 2026.
Supportive ifThe next report shows weather-adjusted retail sales growth of at least 4% year over year. Q2's 5.6% is the comparison.
Worry ifThe next report shows weather-adjusted retail sales growth below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Management says it aims to keep core costs flat. Higher costs could make its earnings range harder to meet.
Worry ifThe next quarterly update reports core O&M above $283 million, with no matching cost savings or stronger earnings range.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly update reports core O&M at or below $283 million while the 2026 EPS range remains unchanged.
Why it matters: APS lists this line as its first named major transmission project. On-time service would show progress on its expansion plan.
Supportive ifAPS reports that the roughly 23-mile, 230 kV Helios-to-Milligan line starts service in 2027, as listed in its plan.
Worry ifAPS delays the line past 2027 or removes it from the named project plan.
Why it matters: The company kept this range after Q2. Results inside it would support its earnings plan.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 3, Pinnacle West keeps its 2026 weather-normalized EPS range at $4.55–$4.75 per share.
Worry ifOn Nov. 3, Pinnacle West cuts the range below $4.55 per share or reports results that put the range at risk.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $176 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,672 loss on $10,000 · 16.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.