Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.56+0.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.27 → 0.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRCH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $103 million in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA should reach around $106 million. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $103 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent signals improved, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
PRCH is valued at a 49.29% premium to peers, and its valuation is rated expensive. The evidence points to some expectations of future growth and optionality already being reflected, but confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near term, the latest evidence is mixed: PRCH reported an earnings beat and raised full-year guidance, while its recent performance has still been weak and earnings surprises have been trending down. Over the multi-year view, reciprocal policies written and Porch-Owned Segments revenue have grown, and statutory surplus has increased, though the supplied evidence does not show that premium targets have been achieved.
The thesis hinges on continued growth in reciprocal policies, revenue, and statutory capacity while the company improves its financial performance. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage confidence; sector results and interest-rate changes are also identified as swing factors, though the evidence gives limited detail on their business impact.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business has signs of operational progress, but losses, high risk, weak recent performance, and an expensive valuation leave the long-term thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit is expected near $407 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| Gross profit falls below $401 million in FY26 |
Gross margin: 74.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $401 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202674.981927 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Management maintains confidence and avoids insider selling | A supporting condition in Porch Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No large insider stock sales. | Under Pressure | CEO or CFO sells significant shares again | CFO sold 30,000 shares (Jun 2026); no new insider sales reported CFO sold 30,000 shares in June 2026. Recent news highlights earnings beats and M&A, with no new insider selling reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $495 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Porch Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $495 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $495 million in FY26 | Revenue: $143.86M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $495 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026143,860,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.13 → $0.46 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.69B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.13 | $584,259,000 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.20 | $600,019,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.20 | $600,019,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.20 | $600,019,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.20 | $600,019,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.19 | $595,614,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.18 | $601,814,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.19 | $601,813,429 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.22 | $606,149,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.22 | $606,156,286 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.23 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.23 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.27 | $602,650,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.27 | $596,500,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.27 | $596,500,875 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.31 | $610,157,687 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.31 | $610,157,687 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.31 | $610,157,687 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.29 | $623,913,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.29 | $622,594,200 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.45 | $686,195,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.45 | $671,438,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.45 | $671,438,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.45 | $671,438,143 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.46 | $692,208,375 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.46 | $692,208,375 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.