Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.94-0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 233.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 219.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 34 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRCH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-11
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 10, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Porticus Reinsurance Ltd. (“Porticus”), a Cayman Islands captive reinsurance company and subsidiary of Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company” or “Porch”), entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “SPA”) with the Porch Reciprocal Exchange, a Texas unincorporated reciprocal inter-insurance exchange (the “Reciprocal”). The parties entered into the SPA following the receipt of required regulatory approvals fro…
Why it matters: New debt can affect financial stability and growth plans. Investors need to assess its impact.
Watch forDebt issuance helps with better capital use and growth plans.
Also watch forDebt issuance strains cash flow and limits growth opportunities.
Why it matters: More policies written shows strong demand and good customer growth.
Supportive ifReciprocal Policies Written grow year over year by more than 38%.
Worry ifReciprocal Policies Written grow year over year by less than 33%.
Why it matters: This will show if Porch can maintain its growth momentum. A drop below 18% could signal issues in scaling its insurance services.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 18%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at 21% or higher.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean problems in the insurance segment.
Worry ifQ3 insurance services revenue growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 insurance services revenue growth above 30% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $588 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,639 loss on $10,000 · 66.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit guidance shows better profits. This can help stock performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises gross profit guidance for 2026 to more than $413 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps gross profit guidance for 2026 at or below $413 million.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would reflect strong growth momentum and market confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for 2026 raised above $517 million.
Worry ifRevenue guidance for 2026 remains at or below $506 million.
Why it matters: A growing surplus helps Porch increase premiums and stay financially healthy.
Supportive ifThe Porch Reciprocal's surplus goes up by more than 3% every quarter.
Worry ifThe Porch Reciprocal's statutory surplus goes down or stays the same.