Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.56+0.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 55.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRCH — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 30, 2026, Porch Reciprocal Exchange (the “Reciprocal”) and Porch Group, Inc. (the “Company” or “Porch”) entered into a distribution agreement (the “Distribution Agreement”) with StoneX Financial Inc., acting as sales agent (the “Sales Agent”), pursuant to which (i) the Reciprocal may offer and sell up to 10 million shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Common Stock”), par value $0.0001 per share (the “Reciprocal ATM Shares”) it curre…
Why it matters: Policy growth reached 42% in Q3, up from 38% in Q2. A continued rise would back Porch’s premium growth plan.
Supportive ifReciprocal Policies Written grow by more than 38% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifReciprocal Policies Written grow by 38% or less year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The deal adds Louisiana policies and claims data. Closing on time would support Porch’s plan to grow its insurance business.
Supportive ifRegulators approve the deal and Porch reports that it closed by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifThe deal is terminated, fails to win approval, or remains unclosed after March 31, 2027.
Why it matters: Porch tied this added profit to the first full year after closing. Results below that mark would weaken the deal’s stated payoff.
Supportive ifIn the first full year after closing, Allied Trust adds about $25 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This excludes the Reciprocal.
Worry ifPorch reports Allied Trust adds far less than $25 million in that first full year, or reports no added EBITDA.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $640 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,990 loss on $10,000 · 59.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.