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RSG

Republic Services

NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-05-08

$200.02-0.76%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, RSG has a mixed analyst signal with a composite score of 5.2 and a medium confidence level of 65.7. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is raised and unfavorable scenarios related to potential guidance cuts and sector trends weakening. The overall risk is categorized as moderate, with a quality score of 68.9 indicating relative strength. This analysis is provisional.

Composite +5.2as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
neutral
Mid-cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    0.01
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
733861836766
F2 · Value
neutral
Mid-cohort by earnings yield
Why this rank
Price
$200.02
TTM EPS
$6.75
Earnings yield
3.4%
P/E (TTM)
29.6

Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3

F3 · Earnings quality
robust
Top 20% cash conversion in industrials cohort
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
2,043
TTM CFO ($M)
3,936
CFO/NI
1.93
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
neutral
Mid-cohort activity· see deep-dive ↓
neutral
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
neutral22 analysts, 59% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $1.84 → $1.83 (-0.4% / 30d). 6 raised, 5 cut, 22 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.

Price target activity

1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.2% above current price.

Material events

0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
2

Stated priorities

Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.

3

Guidance track record

Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
moderateworst 12m loss −22%, typical day ±0.8%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 18%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −22%. Bad day move −2%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLI) 0.03 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 70/100, drawdown 57/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
headwind-7.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLI

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite47.9 / 100
Capital allocation40
Earnings discipline48
Margin discipline83
Balance sheet38
Guidance credibility
Post-call reaction40
as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.

5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
18higher = cheaper

Looks more expensive than peers.

Compared to its own history
37higher = cheaper

Richer than its own typical valuation.

P/E
37.1x
EV/EBITDA
15.2x
FCF yield
3.8%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
fullas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
RSG
Republic Services
+5.2fullmoderate
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
+13expensivemoderate
GE
GE Aerospace
+11expensivemoderate
GEV
GE Vernova
+10fullmoderate
RTX
RTX Corporation
+20fairmoderate
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
0.8%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-1.8%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-21.8%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
moderateas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07)-8.0 pts
  • If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
  • If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Republic Services, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.

    earnings preannouncementnegativescore 77
  2. 2026-05-071d agoItem 8.01

    Other Events. On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share for shareholders of record on July 2, 2026. The dividend will be paid on July 15, 2026.

    capital allocationneutralscore 51
  3. 2026-02-172mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026 , Republic Services, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 10
  4. 2026-02-172mo agoItem 7.01

    Regulation FD Disclosure. Full-Year 2026 Financial Guidance Our guidance is based on current economic conditions. The Company expects full-year revenue to be in a range of $17,050 million to $17,150 million. Net income attributable to Republic Services, Inc. is expected to be in a range of $2,200 million to $2,220 million for 2026. Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (adjusted EBITDA) is expected to be in a range of $5,475 million to $5,525 million for the…

    capital allocationneutralscore 8
  5. 2026-02-122mo agoItem 5.02

    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 10, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Republic Services, Inc. (“Republic”) appointed Ian Craig, 53, to serve on the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Craig will initially be a member of the Board’s Audit Committee and Sustainability & Corporate Responsibility Committee. Mr. Craig will receive equity and cash compensation in…

    executive changeneutralscore 8
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-02-18 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.