Republic Services (RSG)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$222.71-1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RSG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
RSG — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
Regulation FD Disclosure. Updated Full-Year 2026 Financial Guidance Our guidance is based on current economic conditions. The Company expects full-year revenue to be in a range of $17,200 million to $17,300 million. Net income attributable to Republic Services, Inc. is expected to be in a range of $2,210 million to $2,220 million for 2026. The Company raised its full-year adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization ("adjusted EBITDA") guidance and expects it to be…
Why it matters: Steady prices can help increase money from recycling and boost profits.
Supportive ifAverage recycled commodity prices per ton sold rise from $120 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifAverage recycled commodity prices per ton sold fall from $120 in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate is key to meeting the full-year revenue target of $17.05B to $17.15B.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 2.6%. This shows better performance in recycling and waste.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is under 2.6%. This shows challenges in meeting the annual target.
Why it matters: Sector performance can impact the growth rate of Republic Services.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to 8% or more.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to slow below 8%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue and cash flow perform against targets.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and cash flow in line with or above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and cash flow below guidance. This raises concerns about future.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $180 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,463 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is on track to meet its revenue goals.
Watch forQ2 revenue meets or exceeds the target range of $17.05B to $17.15B.
Also watch forQ2 revenue falls below $17.05B.
Why it matters: Missing this target could show problems with cash flow and managing money.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow below $2.54B would show weaker cash flow.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow meets or exceeds $2.54B, confirming strong cash management.
Why it matters: Updates on free cash flow will indicate if the company can meet its $2.52B to $2.56B target.
Watch forManagement raises the adjusted free cash flow guidance above $2.56B.
Also watch forManagement lowers the adjusted free cash flow guidance below $2.52B.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. A cut could indicate financial strain.
Watch forThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.625 per share.
Also watch forThe quarterly dividend is reduced from $0.625 per share.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company's strong growth plans. It shows management wants to meet yearly revenue goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 4.6% or higher compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 4.6%.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cash flow. This helps with future investments and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported within the range of $2.54B to $2.58B.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $2.54B.
Why it matters: This payment shows the company cares about giving back to shareholders. It also shows financial strength.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.67 per share on October 15, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is reduced or not made.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows the company wants to grow by buying other businesses. This can improve market position.
Supportive ifTotal cash spent on acquisitions hits or goes over $1B by the end of the year.
Worry ifTotal cash invested in acquisitions falls below $1B.