Republic Services (RSG)
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$222.71-1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Republic Services grows revenue to about $17.1 billion in 2026. Free cash flow should reach about $2.54 billion. The company pays a steady dividend of $0.625 per share. It is the second largest waste service provider in the US.
Revenue growth could slow below 2%. Free cash flow might miss $2.5 billion. Dividend cuts could happen if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 17% above our fair value near $188. Analysts expect about 4% revenue decline, but we see modest growth.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.625 in any quarter
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $2.52 billion in FY26
Revenue falls below $17.05 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue and cash flow growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's consistent execution on key financial targets.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on RSG, with expectations slightly above its peers. There is a modest gap in expectations, indicating that some growth is already factored into the current valuation.
Fundamentals are likely to remain robust, given management's strong focus on achieving revenue and cash flow targets. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, as recent industry trends have shown some volatility.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like WM, CLH, and CWST. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support RSG's growth; conversely, any negative shifts in their performance could impact RSG's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. Republic Services raised its full-year revenue guidance to $17.2 billion to $17.3 billion. The company also plans to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions this year.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target full-year revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion for 2026.
Overall, RSG is positioned well for the next few years, but it must navigate sector dynamics carefully. Not investment advice.