Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Safehold, Inc. (SAFE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.77-4.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.68 → 1.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAFE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including debt issuance | A supporting condition in Safehold, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Manage debt cost below 7% coupon and maintain investment grade rating in 2026. | Intact | Debt cost rises above 7% or credit rating downgraded in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SAFE is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a growth and income profile, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance in the stronger half of its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is rated volatile.
SAFE is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are not especially demanding. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, though the model has medium confidence.
Near term, revenue and operating income have improved, and management remains on track with its revenue growth, operating income, and dividend priorities. The dividend per share has stayed steady, while a recent acquisition and announced share repurchase are additional developments. Risk is elevated, and a guidance cut or weakness across real estate peers could pressure the operating outlook.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis benefits if management sustains revenue growth and operating income without cutting guidance. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while continued strength among sector peers would preserve a helpful backdrop. The main adverse cases are a guidance reduction or cracks in peer results and outlooks.
For the next one to three years, SAFE’s thesis rests on continued operating progress and steady execution, balanced against fragile earnings quality and elevated risk. Recent performance supports an intact multi-year view, but the evidence is only medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This capital is well suited to match our assets at an attractive cash and net effective cost with our in-the-money hedges, while also lengthening Safehold’s maturity profile.” ““ Customer dialogue and closings have been active , our affordable housing business has good momentum , and our cost of capital has significantly improved following a third credit ratings upgrade to A-.”
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.177 per share | It keeps dividends steady at $0.177 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.17 in any quarter of 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.177 per share quarterly dividend through 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.177 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase operating income through portfolio growth and cost control | Operating income has risen to $25.5 million, showing better profits. | Intact | Operating income falls below $20 million in any quarter of 2026 | Operating income: $29.315M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.5 million operating income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202629,315,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue through new originations and portfolio expansion | Safehold grows revenue through new ground leases and partnerships. | Intact | Revenue falls below $350 million in FY26 | Revenue: $118.679M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $385.6 million revenue in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 2026118,679,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Highlights from the earnings announcement include: ⎯ Q3‘26 revenue was $11 8.7 million ⎯ Q3‘26 net income attributable to common shareholders was $28.8 million ⎯ Q3‘26 earnings per share was $0.” “Highlights from the earnings announcement include: ⎯ Q4 ’25 revenue was $ 97.9 million, and FY ’25 was $ 385.6 million ⎯ Q4 ’25 net income attributable to common shareholders was $ 27.9 million, or $30.1 million excluding non -recurring losses, and FY’2 5 net income attributable to common shareholders was $114.5 million, or $ 11 8.6 million excluding non-recurring losses 1 ⎯ Q4 ’25 earnings per share was $ 0.39, or $0.42 excluding non -recurring losses, and FY’2 5 earnings per share was $ 1.” Revenue was $118.679 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Execute joint ventures to expand portfolio and capital leverage | A supporting condition in Safehold, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete at least one joint venture with >$300 million valuation in 2026-Q2. | Intact | No new joint ventures or partnerships completed in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “42 ⎯ Closed $ 150 million of new ground lease originations 1 ⎯ Formed $348 million joint venture with Brookfield on a portfolio of ground leases ⎯ Closed $225 million private placement of structured senior unsecured notes due 2056 ⎯ Estimated Unrealized Capital Appreciation increased to $9.” ““ Customer dialogue and closings have been active , our affordable housing business has good momentum , and our cost of capital has significantly improved following a third credit ratings upgrade to A-.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.73 → $1.66 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.73 | $467,024,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.73 | $467,024,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.73 | $475,088,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.73 | $467,024,644 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.71 | $475,826,480 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.71 | $476,288,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.71 | $476,288,980 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $477,617,100 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $477,617,100 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $477,617,100 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.72 | $467,680,199 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.70 | $467,502,722 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.70 | $467,502,722 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.70 | $475,626,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.70 | $473,387,785 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.68 | $465,289,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.68 | $465,289,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.68 | $474,914,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.67 | $474,589,312 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.67 | $474,101,812 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.67 | $475,171,141 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.66 | $475,896,141 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.