Safehold, Inc. (SAFE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.12+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAFE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAFE — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-16
Other Events On June 15, 2026, Safehold Inc. (the “Company”) and the Company’s operating company, Safehold GL Holdings LLC (the “Operating Company”), entered into a note purchase agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) with the various purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”) and other parties thereto providing for the private placement and issuance by the Operating Company of $225 million aggregate principal amount of 6.615% Senior Notes due August 1, 2056 (the “Notes”). The Notes featu…
Why it matters: Closing these LOIs could boost Safehold's revenue and validate its growth strategy. It would show strong demand for its ground leases.
Supportive ifAt least $255 million in non-binding LOIs will turn into finalized deals.
Worry ifNo big progress on the non-binding LOIs shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Watch forThe dividend per share stays the same or goes up.
Also watch forDividend per share is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income is higher than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive growth and improve revenue. They signal management's commitment to expansion.
Supportive ifLook for news about more joint projects or partnerships after the Brookfield deal.
Worry ifNo new partnerships means there may not be growth plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $323 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,290 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good money management. It also shows stability.
Supportive ifA stable or higher dividend per share is announced.
Worry ifA lower dividend per share is announced.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices may change interest rates. This can affect Safehold's financing costs and profits.
Watch forThe FOMC decision makes interest rates drop. This lowers financing costs.
Also watch forThe FOMC decision makes interest rates rise. This raises financing costs.
Why it matters: New partnerships can boost growth. They can also increase investment capacity for Safehold.
Supportive ifNew joint ventures were announced. Their total value is over $200 million.
Worry ifNo new joint ventures announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping this dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.177 for the next quarter.
Also watch forDividend per share is cut below $0.177.
Why it matters: Exceeding this level shows strong growth. It supports management's focus on revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $115 million. This confirms strong growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $110 million. This indicates a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Higher origination volume shows strong demand. It also shows good execution on growth plans.
Supportive ifNew ground lease originations were over $150 million in Q3.
Worry ifNew ground lease originations were under $100 million in Q3.