Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$102.11-2.07%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
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Track SBUX free→Starbucks is growing revenue steadily, with $9.5B in Q2 2026, up from $9.4B. Profit estimates for FY26 are raised to $2.35 per share. The company is expanding aggressively in India and overseas stores. Cost savings from restructuring could improve margins.
Growth in China is uncertain due to joint venture challenges. Restructuring efforts are behind schedule, risking cost savings. Legal and operational issues in some markets could hurt brand and profits.
The stock trades about 45% above our fair value near $70, while analysts expect flat revenue growth. Our valuation is well below the Street median, reflecting skepticism about growth and margin improvement.
Breaks if: JV delayed or fails to launch by 2026-Q2
Complete the joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Cost savings fall short by more than 50% by 2026-FY
Pursue $2 billion in cost savings through restructuring activities.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $2.13 in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $9.4B in 2026-Q2
Focus on revitalizing coffeehouses and enhancing customer experience to drive growth.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $9.4B in 2025-Q1 to $9.5B in 2026-Q2. The 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is showing signs of delivering growth, with management consistently emphasizing its importance.
“CEO: 'Our second quarter marked the turn in our turnaround as our Back to Starbucks plan drove both top and bottom line growth.'”
“CEO: 'Our Q1 results demonstrate our 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is working and we believe we're ahead of schedule.'”
“CEO: 'My optimism has turned into confidence that our 'Back to Starbucks' plan is the right strategy to turn the business around.'”
“CEO: 'We've fixed a lot and done the hard work on the hard things to build a strong operating foundation.'”
“CEO: 'Improving transaction comp in a tough consumer environment at our scale is a testament to the power of our brand.'”
“CEO: 'While we’re only one quarter into our turnaround, we’re moving quickly to act on the 'Back to Starbucks' efforts.'”