Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$109.29-0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCHW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers
SCHW — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events On August 12, 2026, The Charles Schwab Corporation (“CSC”) issued $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.108% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2032 (the “2032 Notes”) and $1,350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.655% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2037 (the “2037 Notes” and, together with the 2032 Notes, the “Notes”). The net proceeds of the offering of the Notes were approximately $2,582 million after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions…
Why it matters: Updates on capital allocation will show how Schwab plans to use its resources for growth.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for capital use after the recent debt issues.
Also watch forThere are no updates on capital plans after the debt issues.
Why it matters: Earnings growth shows how well Schwab controls costs and makes more money.
Supportive ifGAAP EPS growth above 40% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifGAAP EPS growth below 30% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The sector is easing, and revenue growth is a key indicator of performance. A drop could signal further challenges.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 12% in the next earnings release.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 12%, showing strong momentum.
Why it matters: Updates will explain how Schwab will handle its recent debt and capital.
Watch forManagement will share a clear plan for using the $2.236 billion in senior notes.
Also watch forNo clear plan is shared about recent debt issuances.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,012 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal weakening demand and impact future earnings. It is a key indicator of market health.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Slower EPS growth may show problems keeping profits. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifGAAP EPS growth is less than 30% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifGAAP EPS growth is 30% or more year-over-year.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level may show problems in keeping profits growing.
Worry ifGAAP EPS for Q3 exceeds $1.50, confirming ongoing earnings strength.
Less concerning ifGAAP EPS for Q3 falls below $1.50, raising concerns about earnings growth.
Why it matters: A drop in asset growth may mean less client interest. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifCore net new assets grow less than 20% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifCore net new assets grow 20% or more year-over-year.
Why it matters: This growth rate is important. It helps keep clients engaged and diversifies revenue.
Worry ifQ3 net revenues growth prints above 16% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net revenues growth falls below 16% year over year.
Why it matters: Core net new assets are crucial for assessing Schwab's growth and client engagement.
Worry ifCore net new assets exceed $100 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore net new assets fall below $100 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Trading revenue shows how engaged clients are. It also reflects market activity.
Worry ifTrading revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifTrading revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This acquisition could improve Schwab's role in private markets. It may affect growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes by the expected date in mid-2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close.