Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SiTime (SITM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$355.00-11.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.92 → 14.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SITM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage dilution from convertible notes and equity sales | A supporting condition in SiTime's published investment case. The stated target is Dilution limited to under 10% over next 12 months. | Under Pressure | Dilution exceeds 10% or new notes raise serious concerns | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and acquisition-integration story, not a profitable, proven compounder today. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: the acquisition is complete and execution has shown progress, but the signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
SITM trades at a notable premium to peers, with optionality, or value tied to possible future growth, helping explain the valuation. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations are ahead of what the evidence supports; confidence in that assessment is low, and the valuation is tagged as justified with low fragility.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent performance is neutral and below the industry cohort, although the latest reported event was an earnings beat. Over the multi-year view, the Renesas acquisition adds more than 550 products and is expected to generate at least $300 million in revenue in its first 12 months after closing; gross margin also improved to 67.1% in 2026-Q2. The business remains loss-making overall, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk despite a low near-term miss probability.
The key execution test is whether SITM converts the acquired products and expected revenue into sustained growth while maintaining margin expansion. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while easier Fed policy or stabilization among major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop. The latest director transition is neutral, so the available evidence does not make it a central swing factor.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on acquisition integration and continued margin strength, but loss-making results, high risk, and weaker performance than the industry leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SiTime's published investment case. The stated target is >=60%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 60% over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue from Renesas timing business reaches $300 million | The Renesas deal should add $300 million revenue next year. | Intact | revenue from Renesas assets falls below $200 million in FY2027 | Revenue: $157.432M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=300 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026157,432,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows at least 60% year over year | SiTime grew revenue 88% year over year to $113.6 million. | Improving | total revenue growth falls below 40% YoY in FY2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.33 → $14.93 · observed estimates
$1.18B → $1.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.05 | $887,745,827 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.33 | $1,178,345,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,140 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,194 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.91 | $1,354,661,137 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.92 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.93 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.93 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.93 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.93 | $1,355,328,495 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.92 | $1,355,877,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.92 | $1,355,877,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.92 | $1,355,877,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.92 | $1,355,877,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.92 | $1,355,877,771 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.92 | $1,353,389,994 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.93 | $1,355,836,358 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.