SiTime (SITM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$612.09+6.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SITM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 41.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SITM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-01
Credit Agreement On June 30, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Company entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) by and among the Company as borrower, the lenders from time to time party thereto (the “Lenders”) and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collateral agent for the Lenders. The Credit Agreement provides for a senior secured revolving credit facility in an aggregate principal amount of $200,000,000 (the “Revolving Credit Facility”; and an…
Why it matters: The notes will fund growth initiatives. Their impact on cash flow and dilution is crucial for investors.
Watch forManagement says they are using the money from the notes well, leading to revenue growth.
Also watch forManagement says there are issues with using money wisely. More dilution may be happening.
Why it matters: The $1.1 billion notes issuance is key for funding the acquisition and other projects.
Watch forSiTime shows it used the notes to help fund the acquisition.
Also watch forSiTime has trouble using the funds well or reports negative financial results.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show less demand in the precision timing market.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 80% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above 80% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this will show the company can raise money for growth.
Supportive ifThe offering of convertible senior notes is done. The money was used as planned.
Worry ifOffering is late or does not raise the expected money.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$343 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $802 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,873 loss on $10,000 · 48.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This revenue target shows if the acquisition boosts SiTime's growth as planned. Meeting this target supports the path to $1 billion revenue.
Supportive ifSiTime expects at least $300 million in revenue from the Renesas timing business in 12 months.
Worry ifRevenue from the Renesas timing business drops below $200 million in the same time.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if SiTime keeps strong revenue growth and profit trends.
Watch forQ2 net revenue grows year over year by more than 80%.
Also watch forQ2 net revenue growth falls below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Good partnerships could grow SiTime's customers and products, helping it grow.
Supportive ifNew products or deals with Renesas are announced.
Worry ifNo news on partnerships or integrations with Renesas.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key to SiTime's growth. It is expected to add $300 million in revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of July 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close by the expected date.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for SiTime's growth. Its effects on revenue will show if the strategy is working.
Supportive ifRevenue growth from the Renesas assets exceeds 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth from the Renesas assets is less than 0% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Going above this threshold would show strong performance and profit.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income reported above $40 million for Q2.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income reported below $40 million for Q2.
Why it matters: A buyback program shows that management trusts the company's value and future.
Supportive ifSiTime announces a share buyback program with clear details.
Worry ifNo announcement or a delay in the share buyback program occurs.
Why it matters: The buyback program aims to enhance shareholder value. Its effect on stock price will be telling.
Supportive ifStock price increases by more than 5% following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price declines by more than 5% following the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: How SiTime uses the proceeds will impact its financial health and future growth strategy.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for how to use the $1.1 billion in notes.
Also watch forNo clear updates or plans shared regarding the use of the notes proceeds.
Why it matters: This funding is key for the Renesas acquisition. It may change SiTime's money options.
Watch forThe offering is fully subscribed. The money will be used as planned for the acquisition.
Also watch forThe offering does not get enough interest. The money is not used for the acquisition.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand for SiTime's products.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 100% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth stays above 100% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin could indicate rising costs or pricing pressure in the market.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin drops below 65%.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP gross margin remains at or above 65%.