Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-07-08
$26.25-3.46%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track SMCI free→Supermicro grows revenue to about $40 billion in 2026, driven by AI demand. The order book holds over $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders. EPS improved to $0.72 in Q3 2026, showing better profits. The company leads in AI and datacenter infrastructure.
The $7 billion capital raise may hurt growth and investor confidence. Management changes and legal issues raise risks. Profit margins and cash flow remain fragile amid market selloff.
The stock trades about 48% below our $51 fair value, reflecting a 55% revenue growth expectation. Our fair value is 28% above the Street median, indicating some optimism priced in. We see risk from funding needs and margin pressure.
Breaks if: Capital raise causes revenue or margin decline below guidance
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.5 per share next quarter
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain positive earnings per share guidance and improve operating income and net income margins through operational execution and margin recovery.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Diluted EPS improved from $0.17 in 2025-Q3 to $0.72 in 2026-Q3, while net income rose from $109 million to $483 million over the same period. Management has consistently maintained positive EPS guidance and the financial results show delivering profitability improvement.
“Diluted net income per common share of $0.72 versus $0.60 in Q2'26 and $0.17 in Q3'25.”
“Diluted net income per common share of $0.60 versus $0.26 in Q1'26 and $0.51 in Q2'25.”
“Diluted net income per common share of $0.26 versus $0.31 in Q4'25 and $0.67 in Q1'25.”
“Diluted net income per common share of $0.31 versus $0.17 in Q3'25 and $0.46 in Q4'24.”
Breaks if: Order book falls below $10 billion
Grow the order book notably with Blackwell Ultra product line to support revenue growth and AI infrastructure leadership.
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently cites a rapidly expanding order book with over $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders. This order book supports the revenue growth priority. The order book size is stable and management continues to emphasize it as a growth driver.
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
“We expect to grow more large-scale datacenter customers from four in FY25 to six to eight in FY26.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $33 billion in FY 2026
Continue growing revenue to reach $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion in fiscal year 2026, driven by expanding AI and datacenter infrastructure demand.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from at least $33.0 billion in 2025-Q4 to a range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion in 2026-Q3. Quarterly revenue grew from $5.0 billion in 2026-Q1 to $10.2 billion in 2026-Q3. Management is delivering on this growth trajectory.
“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales in the range of $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion.”
“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales of at least $40.0 billion.”
“We expect at least $36 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.”
“For fiscal year 2026, the Company expects net sales of at least $33.0 billion.”